Abstract/Summary

Limited attention has been given to improving carbon storage by identifying ecological conservation and restoration areas (ECRAs). In this research, we proposed a new framework for identifying ECRAs by incorporating future carbon storage changes into ecological security patterns (ESPs), including several models of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST), Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) and circuit theory. This new framework was applied in Jiangsu Yangtze River Economic Belt, East China. To evaluate the effectiveness of this new framework, we compared two scenarios: an ecological priority scenario (EPS) where future carbon storage change was not considered and an ecosystem carbon sequestration scenario (ECSS) where future carbon storage change was explicitly incorporated. Under the EPS, ecological conservation areas and ecological restoration areas were 11169.87 km2 and 221.11 km2, respectively. Under the ECSS, the ecological conservation areas and ecological restoration areas were 14768.76 km2 and 244.89 km2, respectively. Carbon storage will be most likely to increase around lakes and the Yangtze River, and the identified key areas under the ECSS will be more adaptable to future environmental changes than the EPS. This new framework can effectively enhance both ecological function and carbon sequestration, providing effective support for policymakers in landscape management and low-carbon development in other regions facing similar challenges. In the meantime, more caution is needed for the possible limitations, such as without adequate consideration of uncertainties of changes in population, land use, and economy in the future.