High profile attacks, regimes of criminal governance, and foreign direct investment in Mexico

Ibarra-Olivo, J. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3873-2886, Ley, S. and Meseger, C. (2025) High profile attacks, regimes of criminal governance, and foreign direct investment in Mexico. The World Economy, 48 (7). pp. 1732-1752. ISSN 1467-9701 doi: 10.1111/twec.13723

Abstract/Summary

This paper examines the influence of high-profile attacks (HPAs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexican municipalities. HPAs target political officials and signal attempts by organized criminal groups (OCGs) to dominate the local organization of the communities under their influence. Such efforts to establish criminal governance controls can potentially create a stable environment conducive to FDI. Using a dataset on HPAs and analyzing their impact on sectoral FDI at the municipal level between 2007 and 2013 in Mexico, we find that HPAs do not discourage foreign investment. However, this effect depends on whether the establishment of criminal governance occurs amid widespread violence. Under conditions of generalized violence, the stabilizing influence of HPAs has a negative effect on FDI, especially in the commerce and service sectors. Our findings offer new insights into the conditions under which organized crime affects FDI, contributing to an ongoing debate.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/122685
Identification Number/DOI	10.1111/twec.13723
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > International Business and Strategy
Publisher	Wiley
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