Stronger influence of the tropical Atlantic on interannual variability of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall since mid-1990s

Zhu, Z., Jiang, Y., Li, J. and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2025) Stronger influence of the tropical Atlantic on interannual variability of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall since mid-1990s. Journal of Climate, 38 (14). pp. 3453-3467. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0459.1

Abstract/Summary

Uncovering predictability sources of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) is a vital importance for disaster prevention and mitigation as well as sustainable economic development. Using observations from 1971 to 2020, the present study reveals a regime shift of the tropical oceanic drivers of the interannual variation of NHLMR. We show that the interannual variation of NHLMR is dominated by a zonal sea surface temperature (SST) contrast in the tropical Pacific and a uniform SST pattern in tropical Atlantic, and accompanied by a dipole SST pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean. While the relationship of NHLMR with tropical Pacific remains stable over the past five decades, the relationship with tropical Atlantic is strengthened around the mid-1990s. Observations and numerical experiments demonstrate that decadal warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, associated with the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, is the main contributor to the enhanced influence of the tropical Atlantic on NHLMR after mid-1990s by modulating the pan-tropical Walker circulation.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/123463
Identification Number/DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0459.1
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Meteorological Society
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item