Structured multi-method framework for enhancing the understanding of multi-hazard risk: forensic disaster analysis, impact chains and risk storylines

Calderon, L.J.O., Romagnoli, F., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Cocuccioni, S., Schneiderbauer, S. and Pittore, M. (2026) Structured multi-method framework for enhancing the understanding of multi-hazard risk: forensic disaster analysis, impact chains and risk storylines. Environmental Research: Climate. ISSN 2752-5295 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Analysing multi-hazard climate risk is complex due to multiple interactions among risk factors, leading to cascading and interconnected impacts. While past climate-related disasters provide invaluable insights into underlying risk factors, the non-stationarity of meteoclimatic processes and evolving non-climatic risk drivers necessitate approaches that also consider present and future conditions; moreover, lessons from past events must be generalised to effectively inform risk governance. A range of analytical approaches has been developed to capture this complexity, each shaped by distinct perspectives and values. Understanding how these approaches conceptualise risk is crucial for advancing disaster risk science. Although widely used, they are typically applied in isolation, with no guiding framework for integrating them into a cohesive, multi-method workflow. This paper proposes such a framework, combining Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA), Impact Chains (IC), and Risk Storylines (SL) as complementary approaches for multi-hazard risk assessment, designed to support strategic risk framing for researchers and practitioners in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. We argue that applying these methods jointly and in a structured manner provides a more comprehensive understanding of climate disaster risk across the full temporal spectrum—from forensic analysis of past events, to impact chains for present risk assessment, to risk storylines for exploring possible futures in terms of materialised impacts. To substantiate this argument, we exemplify the framework using the Vaia storm in Northern Italy, and comparatively evaluate the three approaches against seven characteristics identified by Hochrainer-Stigler et al. (2023) for comprehensive multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment. By highlighting the individual limitations and complementary strengths of these analytical approaches through the lens of these seven criteria, this paper provides a pathway for moving from single-method approaches toward an integrated, temporally comprehensive framework that can enhance risk assessment and generate actionable insights for climate and disaster risk governance.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129188
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	IOP Science
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