Cycles and steps in British commercial property valuesScott, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1230-9040 and Judge, G. (2000) Cycles and steps in British commercial property values. Applied Economics, 32 (10). pp. 1287-1297. ISSN 1466-4283 Full text not archived in this repository. It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1080/000368400404443 Abstract/SummaryThis paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).
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