Abstract/Summary

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict the summer (JJAS) surface-air temperature over North East Asia. DePreSys3 is based on a high resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled climate prediction system (~ 60 km in the atmosphere and ~ 25 km in the ocean), which is full-field initialized from 1960 to 2014 (26 start-dates). We find skill in predicting surface-air temperature, relative to a long-term trend, for 1 and 2–5 year leadtimes over North East Asia, the North Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Europe. DePreSys3 also reproduces the interdecadal evolution of surface-air temperature over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and North East Asia for both lead times, along with the strong warming that occurred in the mid-1990s over both areas. Composite analysis reveals that the skill at capturing interdecadal changes in North East Asia is associated with the propagation of an atmospheric Rossby wave, which follows the subtropical jet and modulates surface-air temperature from Europe to Eastern Asia. We hypothesise that this ‘circumglobal teleconnection’ pattern is excited over the Atlantic Ocean and is related to Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the associated changes in precipitation over the Sahel and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This mechanism is robust for the 2–5 year lead-time. For the 1 year lead-time the Pacific Ocean also plays an important role in leading to skill in predicting SAT over Northeast Asia. Increased temperatures and precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean was found to be associated with a Pacific-Japan like-pattern, which can affect East Asia’s climate.