Article

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Toumi, R. (2025) High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8 (1). 32. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-00919-y

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Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Dieppois, B., Pohl, B. and Crétat, J. (2024) Internally driven variability of the Angola Low is the main source of uncertainty for the future changes in southern African precipitation. JGR Atmospheres, 129 (15). e2024JD041255. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2024JD041255

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Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Chadwick, R., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2024) An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (5). 054048. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8

Mohino, E., Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Mignot, J., Diakhaté, M., Donat, M., Roberts, C. D. and Doblas-Reyes, F. (2024) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon. Earth System Dynamics, 15 (1). pp. 15-40. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: 10.5194/esd-15-15-2024

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Ndiaye, C. D., Song, C. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9). 094002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acea96

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Biasutti, M., Mignot, J., Mohino, E., Pohl, B. and Zappa, G. (2023) Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature. JGR Atmospheres, 128 (16). e2023JD038712. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2023JD038712

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Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Pohl, B. and Gaetani, M. (2021) The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4. 24. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00179-6

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Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2019) Effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on the global monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (3). pp. 1765-1775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2018GL080903

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Oudar, T. and Sanchez-Gomez, E. (2019) Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 52 (9-10). pp. 5947-5964. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4488-5

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Dunstone, N. (2018) A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia? Climate Dynamics, 51 (1-2). pp. 473-491. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3935-z

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Coquart, L., Maisonnave, E., Moine, M.-P., Terray, L. and Valcke, S. (2017) Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 49. pp. 3527-3550. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3528-x

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Moine, M.-P., Terray, L. and Valcke, S. (2017) Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (5). 054010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5

Pohl, B., Macron, C. and Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559 (2017) Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa. Scientific Reports, 7. 46466. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: 10.1038/srep46466

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Sanchez-Gomez, E. and Boé, J. (2017) On the range of future Sahel precipitation projections and the selection of a sub-sample of CMIP5 models for impact studies. Climate Dynamics, 48 (7-8). pp. 2751-2770. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3236-y

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Sanchez-Gomez, E., Pohl, B., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2017) Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cda

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Biasutti, M. and Roucou, P. (2016) On the projected increase of Sahel rainfall during the late rainy season. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (13). pp. 4373-4383. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.4638

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Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Roucou, P. and Fontaine, B. (2013) Mid-century effects of climate change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (4). pp. 881-896. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.3476

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Fontaine, B. and Roucou, P. (2012) Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117 (D16). D16111. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2012JD017510

Fontaine, B., Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Gaetani, M. and Roucou, P. (2011) Climate adjustments over the African-Indian monsoon regions accompanying Mediterranean Sea thermal variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116 (D23). D23122. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2011JD016273

Fontaine, B., Roucou, P. and Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559 (2011) Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario. Atmospheric Science Letters, 12 (1). pp. 83-88. ISSN 1530-261X doi: 10.1002/asl.321

Book or Report Section

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Nadoya, H. N., Pinto, I., Tamoffo, A. T. and Worou, K. (2025) Chapter 6 - Future changes in precipitation distributions over Africa. In: Akinsanola, A. A. and Adebiyi, A. A. (eds.) Aerosols and Precipitation Over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects. Elsevier, pp. 169-204. ISBN 9780443140501 doi: 10.1016/B978-0-44-314050-1.00011-6