Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenariosChevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hannah, S. (2018) Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenarios. Earth's Future, 6 (3). pp. 339-358. ISSN 2328-4277
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000734 Abstract/SummaryIn light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable inter-model variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.
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