Abstract/Summary

Reducing CO2 emissions through a shift from coal to natural gas power plants is a key strategy to support pathways for climate stabilization. However, methane leakage in the natural gas supply chain and emissions of a variety of climate forcers call the net benefits of this transition into question. Here, we integrated a life cycle inventory model with multiple global and regional emission metrics and investigated the impacts of representative coal and gas power plants in China, Germany, India, and the US. We found that the coal-to-gas shift is consistent with climate stabilization objectives for the next 50 to 100 years. Our finding is robust under a range of leakage rates and uncertainties in emission data and metrics. It becomes conditional to the leakage rate in some locations only if we employ a set of metrics that essentially focuses on short-term effects. Our case for the coal-to-gas shift is stronger than previously found, reinforcing the support for coal phase-out.