Abstract/Summary

The mid-Holocene (7-5 ka) was a period with an increased seasonal insolation cycle, resulting from decreased insolation during northern hemisphere winter. Here, a set of six CMIP5 models is used to show that the decreased insolation reduced the upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, producing a weaker subtropical jet with less horizontal shear. These effects work to reduce the baroclinic and barotropic instability available for perturbations to grow, and in consequence, storm-tracking results show that there are fewer winter storms over India and Pakistan (known as western disturbances). These western disturbances are weaker, resulting in a reduction in winter precipitation of around 15% in the north Indus Basin. Combined with previous work showing greater northwestward extent of the Indian monsoon during the mid-Holocene, our GCM-derived results are consistent with the Indus Basin changing from a summer-growing season in the mid-Holocene to a winter-growing season in the present day.