Abstract/Summary

Large scale, quasi-stationary atmospheric waves (QSWs) are known to be strongly connected with extreme events and general weather conditions. Yet, despite their importance, there is still a lack of understanding about what drives variability in QSW. This study is a step towards this goal, and identifies three statistically significant connections between QSWs and sea surface anomalies (temperature and ice cover) by applying a maximum covariance analysis technique to reanalysis data (1979-2015). The two most dominant connections are linked to the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. They confirm the expected relationship between QSWs and anomalous surface conditions in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic, but they cannot be used to infer a driving mechanism or predictability from the sea surface temperature or the sea ice cover to the QSW. The third connection, in contrast, occurs between late winter to early spring Atlantic sea ice concentrations and anomalous QSW patterns in the following late summer to early autumn. This new finding offers a pathway for possible long term predictability of late summer QSW occurrence.