Storm surge risks and associated synoptic patterns for the great slave lake shoreline

Yu, B., Roose, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6444-4837, Sushama, L., Bernardo, T. and Yerubandi, R. (2026) Storm surge risks and associated synoptic patterns for the great slave lake shoreline. Results in Engineering, 31. 111612. ISSN 2590-1230 doi: 10.1016/j.rineng.2026.111612

Abstract/Summary

This study assesses storm surge characteristics for the Great Slave Lake region situated in the Northwest Territories of Canada for current (1991-2020) and future (2041-2070) climates for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Coupled hydrodynamic-wave simulations, performed for extreme storm events corresponding to archetypal synoptic patterns identified using structural self-organizing maps applied to mean sea level pressure fields from high-resolution regional climate model simulations, are used to assess surge levels for the shoreline regions. Results for the current period indicate that the southern shorelines of the basin experience surge levels of up to 0.6 m, primarily linked to synoptic patterns characterised by strong westerly and northwesterly winds over the lake. In contrast, the northern shoreline experiences relatively low surge. Future projections indicate intensification of northwesterly, westerly, and northeasterly winds, further enhancing surge levels for the southern shores, with 22 and 59 increases projected for the communities of Fort Resolution and Hay River, respectively. Potential increase in storm surge is also projected for the east arm, including the Łutselk’e community. Although the frequency of synoptic patterns linked to southwesterly winds impacting northern shorelines is projected to increase by 46, the relatively smaller changes in wind magnitude yield no substantial changes in surge levels for the northern shorelines, including Yellowknife. Although surge levels are relatively small compared to oceanic coastline regions, the high vulnerability of these remote regions necessitates detailed quantification of risks to support development of adaptation strategies to ensure climate resiliency of shoreline infrastructure and communities.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/130691
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.rineng.2026.111612
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	No Reading authors. Back catalogue items Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	Storm surge, Climate change, Great Slave Lake, synoptic patterns
Publisher	Elsevier
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