Accessibility navigation


Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

417Kb

To link to this article DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034059

Abstract/Summary

We explore the potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) using a coupled global climate model (HadCM3). Rapid changes in the temperature and salinity of surface water in the Nordic Seas, and the flow of dense water through Denmark Strait, are found to be precursors to rapid changes in the model's MOC, with a lead time of around 10 years. The mechanism proposed to explain this potential predictability relies on the development of density anomalies in the Nordic Seas which propagate through Denmark Strait and along the deep western boundary current, affecting the overturning. These rapid changes in the MOC have significant, and widespread, climate impacts which are potentially predictable a few years ahead. Whilst the flow through Denmark Strait is too strong in HadCM3, the presence of such potential predictability motivates the monitoring of water properties in the Nordic Seas and Denmark Strait.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:1287
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

Download Statistics for this item.

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation