Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales
Arnoult, M. H., Jones, P. J., Tranter, R. B., Tiffin, J. R., Traill, W. B. and Tzanopoulos, J. (2010) Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales. Land Use Policy, 27 (4). pp. 1046-1055. ISSN 0264-8377
Full text not archived in this repository.
To link to this article DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.02.001
Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.
● Acs, S., Hanley, N., Dallimer, M., Gaston, K.J., Robertson, P., Wilson, P., Armsworth, P.R., 2010. The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: implications for farm incomes, land use and upland ecology. Land Use Policy 27, 550–563. ● Anderson, P., Yalden, D.W., 1981. Long-term changes in extent of heather moor-land in upland Britain and Ireland: palaeoecological evidence for the importance of grazing. Biological Conservation 20, 195–213. ● Bennett, R.M., Jones, P.J., 1999. Modelling the impact of BSE policy on agriculture in England and Wales. Land Use Policy 16, 11–22. ● Bennett, R.M., Tranter, R.B., Harrison Mayfield, L.M., Jones, P.J., Little, G.P.J., 1999. Regional land use and employment impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy slaughter policy measures in England. Geoforum 30, 159–169. ● Benton, T.G., Bryant, D.M., Cole, I., Crick, H.O.P., 2002. Linking agricultural practice to insect and bird populations: a historical study over three decades. Journal of Applied Ecology 39, 673–687. ● Bunce, R.G.H., Barr, C.J., Clarke, R.T., Howard, D.C., Lane, A.M.J., 1996a. Land classification for strategic ecological survey. Journal of Environmental Management 47, 37–60. ● Bunce, R.G.H., Barr, C.J., Clarke, R.T., Howard, D.C., Lane, A.M.J., 1996b. ITE Merlewood land classification of Great Britain. Journal of Biogeography 23, 625–634. ● Burton, R.J.F., Wilson, G.A., 2006. Injecting social psychology theory into conceptualisations of agricultural agency: towards a post-productivist farmer self-identity? Journal of Rural Studies 22, 95–115. ● Buzby, J.C., Wells, H.F., Vocke, G., 2006. Possible implications for U.S. agriculture from adoption of select dietary guidelines. Economic Research Service, USDA, Economic Research Report Number 31 (ERR-31). ● abinet Office Strategy Unit, 2008. Food Matters: Towards a Strategy for the 21st Century. http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/cabinetoffice/strategy/assets/food/food matters1.pdf. ● Chamberlain, D.E., Fuller, R.J., 2001. Contrasting patterns of change in the distribution and abundance of farmland birds in relation to farming system in lowland Britain. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10, 399–409. ● Cooke, I.R., Queenborough, S.A., Mattison, E.H.A., Bailey, A.P., Sanders, D.L., Graves, A.R., Morris, J., Atkinson, P.W., Trawick, P., Freckleton, R.P., Watkinson, A.R., Sutherland, W.J., 2009. Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agroecology. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 269–277. ● Crowley, E., 2003. The evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy and social differentiation in rural Ireland. Economic and Social Review 34, 65–85. ● Dallimer, M., Tinch, D., Acs, S., Hanley, N., Southall, H.R., Gaston, K.J., Armsworth, P.R., 2009. 100 years of change: examining agricultural trends, habitat change and stakeholder perceptions through the 20th century. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 334–343. ● Defra, 2002. Sustainable Farming and Food Strategy. Available from http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/policy/sustain/index.htm. ● Defra, 2005a. Family food. Report on the Expenditure and Food Survey. Online resource: http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/efs/default.asp. ● Defra, 2005b. The validity of food miles as an indicator of sustainable development. Report ED50254 Issue 7, AEA Technology Environment, Didcot. http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/foodmiles/default.asp. ● Defra, 2010. Food 2030. TSO, London. DiSogra, L., Taccone, F., 2003. 5 a Day for Better Health Program. World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland. ● DoH, 1991. Dietary reference values for food energy and nutrients for the UK. RHSS 41. Department of Health, London. ● Evans, N.J., Morris, C., 1997. Towards a geography of agri-environmental policies in England and Wales. Geoforum 28, 189–204. ● Fox, A.D., 2004. Has Danish agriculture maintained farmland bird populations? Journal of Applied Ecology 41, 427–439. ● Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., Nonhebel, S., Ivens, W.P.M.F., 2002. A method to determine land requirements relating to food consumption patterns. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 90, 47–58. ● Gohin, A., 2006. Assessing the CAP reform: sensitivity of modelling decoupling policies. Journal of Agricultural Economics 57, 415–440. ● Halfacree, K.H., 1999. A new space or spatial effacement? Alternative futures for the post-productivist countryside. In: Walford, N., Everitt, J., Napton, D. (Eds.), Reshaping the Countryside: Perceptions and Processes of Rural Change. CAB International, Wallingford, pp. 67–76. ● HMGovernment, 1992. Health of the nation. A Strategy for Health in England. Cmnd 1986. London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. ● Hodge, I., 2007. The governance of rural land in a liberalised world. Journal of Agricultural Economics 58, 409–432. ● Hossell, J.E., Jones, P.J., Rehman, T., Tranter, R.B., Marsh, J.S., Parry, M.L., Bunce, R.G.H., 1995. Potential effects of climate change on agricultural land use and production in England and Wales, and implications for National policy. Research Report No. 8. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford. ● Hossell, J.E., Jones, P.J., Marsh, J.S., Parry, M.L., Rehman, T., Tranter, R.B., 1996. The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales. Geoforum 27, 149–157. ● Johnston, C.S., Taylor, S.A., Hampl, J.S., 2000. More Americans are eating 5 a day but intakes of dark green and cruciferous vegetables remain low. Journal of Nutrition 130, 3063–3067. ● Jones, P.J., Rehman, T., Harvey, D.R., Tranter, R.B., Marsh, J.S., Bunce, R.G.H., Howard, D.C., 1995. Developing LUAM (Land Use Allocation Model) and modelling CAP reforms. CAS Paper 32. Centre for Agricultural Strategy, University of Reading. ● Lachet, C., Van Camp, J., De Henauw, S., Matthys, C., Larondelle, Y., Remaut-De Winter, A.M., Kolsteren, P., 2005. A concise overview of national nutrition action plans in the European Union Member States. Public Health Nutrition 8, 266–274. ● Marsden, T., Murdoch, J., Lowe, P., Munton, R., Flynn, A., 1993. Constructing the Countryside. UCL Press, London. McCance, R.A., Widdowson, E.M., 2002. The Composition of Food, 6th edition. Food Standards Agency, London. ● Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. ● Munton, R., Whatmore, S., Marsden, T., 1989. Part-time farming and its implications for the rural landscape. Environment and Planning A 21, 523–536. ● Munton, R., 2009. Rural land ownership in the United Kingdom: changing patterns and future possibilities for land use. Land Use Policy 26S, S54–S61. ● Popkin, B.M., Kim, S., Rusev, E.R., Zizza, C., 2006. Measuring the full economic costs of diet, physical activity and obesity-related chronic diseases. Obesity Reviews 7, 271–293. ● Potter, C., Lobley, M., 1996. The farm family life cycle: succession paths and environmental change in Britain’s countryside. Journal of Agricultural Economics 47, 172–190. ● Rayner, M., Scarborough, P., 2005. The burden of food related ill-health in the UK. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 59, 1054–1057. ● Rickard, B.J., Gonsalves, J.L., 2008. How would compliance with dietary recommendations affect revenues for agricultural producers? Food Policy 33, 422–433. ● Rouquette, J.R., Posthumus, H., Gowing, D.J.G., Tucker, G., Dawson, Q.L., Hess, T.M., Morris, J., 2009. Valuing nature—conservation interests on agricultural floodplains. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 289–296. ● inclair, G., 1983. The Upland Landscapes Study. Environment Information Services, Dyfed, UK. Srinivasan, C.S., Irz, X., Shankar, B., 2006. An assessment of the potential consumption impacts of WHO dietary norms in OECD countries. Food Policy 31, 53–77. ● Sutherland, L.A., 2010. Environmental grants and regulations in strategic farm business decision-making: a case study of attitudinal behaviour in Scotland. Land Use Policy 27, 415–423. ● Traill, W.B., Arnoult, M.H.P., Chamersa, S.A., Deaville, E.R., Gordon, M.H., John, P., Jones, P.J., Kliem, K.E., Mortimer, S.R., Tiffin, J.R., 2008. The potential for competitive and healthy food chains of benefit to the countryside. Trends in Food Science and Technology 19, 248–254. ● Tscharntke, T., Klein, A.M., Kruess, A., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Thies, C., 2005. Landscape perspectives on agricultural intensification and biodiversity—ecosystem service management. Ecology Letters 8, 857–874. ● USDA, 2005. Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 6th edition. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. ● Vandermeulen, V., Gellynck, X., Van Huylenbroeck, G., Van Orshoven, J., Bomans, K., 2009. Farmland for tomorrow in densely populated areas. Land Use Policy 26, 859–868. ● Walford, N., 2002. Agricultural adjustment: adoption of, and adaptation to, policy reform measures by large-scale commercial farmers. Land Use Policy 19, 243–257. ● Walford, N., 2003. Productivism is allegedly dead, long live productivism. Evidence of continued productivist attitudes and decision-making in South-East England. Journal of Rural Studies 19, 491–502. ● Walker, K.J., Stevens, P.A., Stevens, D.P., Mountford, J.O., Manchester, S.J., Pywell, R.F., 2004. The restoration and re-creation of species-rich lowland grassland on land formerly managed for intensive agriculture in the UK. Biological Conservation 119, 1–18. ● Ward, N., Marsden, T., Munton, R., 1990. Farm landscape change: trends in upland and lowland England. Land Use Policy 7, 291–302. ● WHO, 2003. Diet, Nutrition, and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases: Report of a JointWHO/FAOExpert Consultation, Geneva, 28 January–1 February 2002.WHO Technical Report Series: 916. World Health Organisation, Geneva. ● WHO, 2004. Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health. World Health Organisation, Geneva. ● Wilson, G.A., 2001. From productivism to post-productivism . . . and back again? Exploring the unchanged natural and mental landscapes of European agriculture. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 26, 77–102. ● Winter, M., 2000. Strong policy or weak policy? The environmental impact of the 1992 reforms to the CAP arable regime in Great Britain. Journal of Rural Studies 16, 47–59.
Repository Staff Only: item control page