Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario
Fontaine, B., Roucou, P. and Monerie, P.-A.
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1002/asl.321 Abstract/SummaryThis study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5 ◦W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58◦ in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24◦) is observed.
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