Accessibility navigation


Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2022) Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty. Journal of Climate. ISSN 1520-0442

[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only until 12 July 2022.

9MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1

Abstract/Summary

Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM)exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20 st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, and due to differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain, due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:102237
Publisher:American Meteorological Society

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation