The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution

Feser, F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2025) The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution. Communications Earth and Environment, 6. 677. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6

Abstract/Summary

Spectrally nudged storylines (constraining the large-scale atmospheric circulation to follow that of a particular weather event) represent a relatively new attribution method. They differ from conventional, probabilistic attribution approaches which consider a class of similar, generally univariate, extremes. Instead, their focus is on particular, historic extreme events of large impact which are still vividly anchored in collective memory. The innovation of the method is the feasibility to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change for specific extreme events of the recent past, and it draws on experience from regional climate downscaling. Spectrally nudged storylines thus offer a new, easily implemented and easily understandable way of communicating climate change to the general public and decision-makers, as well as a pathway for detailed attribution of climate impacts. The technique offers great potential as an addition to the established attribution methods by answering different questions and providing new attribution results.

Additional Information	A publisher correction to this article was published on 18/9/25 and is available here https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02785-1. The Version of Record originally posted here has been replaced with the new version.
Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/123774
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Additional Information	A publisher correction to this article was published on 18/9/25 and is available here https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02785-1. The Version of Record originally posted here has been replaced with the new version.
Publisher	Nature
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