Tropical SST modes provide a unified explanation for global tropical cyclogenesis changes

Li, J., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Zhang, S., Toumi, R. and Xu, J. (2026) Tropical SST modes provide a unified explanation for global tropical cyclogenesis changes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. ISSN 2397-3722 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Over the past four decades, global tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) frequency has exhibited no trend related to strong interannual variability and uneven regional TCG trends, despite pronounced global sea surface temperature (SST) increases. This study offers new evidence explaining the disparity between the global TCG trend and global warming. Here we show that just three global tropics-wide SST patterns can account for TCG interannual variability in most global ocean areas where TCG is climatologically active. We further find that the warming mode of tropical SSTs explains 77% of global ocean areas observed with significant TCG trends, with the strongest influence in the tropics with robust observed TCG trends. These warming-related TCG trends are associated with a reorganization of the Pacific and Atlantic Walker circulations, which modulates environmental conditions governing regional TCG. These findings reveal how global warming influences regional TCG in an uneven manner, consistent with the mechanisms underpinning interannual variability.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127780
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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