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Stability specifications for climate data records: their meaning and application in evaluating geophysical trend uncertainty

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Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Woolliams, E. R., Dorigo, W., Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Gobron, K., Hohensinn, R., Loizeau, X. and Tynan, C. P. J. (2026) Stability specifications for climate data records: their meaning and application in evaluating geophysical trend uncertainty. Surveys in Geophysics. ISSN 1573-0956 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

When quanXfying changes over Xme in the natural environment, the stability of the observaXons used should be considered. Stability conceptually refers to how accurately true geophysical changes and trends are reflected in observaXonal data. We argue the need for a beger approach to defining and quanXfying stability consistently across climate data records. We propose that the appropriate stability metric is the stability uncertainty for specified spaXal and temporal scales. We formally define stability uncertainty by analogy with metrological measurement uncertainty. Informally, stability uncertainty informs data analysts about the plausible magnitude of a non-geophysical contribuXon to trend values arising solely from the observing system. NeglecXng the stability uncertainty leads to over- confident assessment of the significance of geophysical trends inferred from observaXons. We recommend that adopXng this metric would greatly improve the clarity and pracXcal impact of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) statements of requirement for stability of essenXal climate variable (ECV) products. Moreover, GCOS stability requirements would then become a useful resource for users of ECV products when evaluaXng and interpreXng trends in observaXons, helping them avoid unjusXfied claims for the significance of computed trends; a syntheXc illustraXon of such usage is provided.

Item Type Article
URI https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/128460
Refereed Yes
Divisions Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher Springer
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