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Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century?

Turner, A. G. ORCID: and Hannachi, A. (2010) Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L16706. ISSN 0094-8276

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044159


Mixture model techniques are applied to a daily index of monsoon convection from ERA‐40 reanalysis to show regime behavior. The result is the existence of two significant regimes showing preferred locations of convection within the Asia/Western‐North Pacific domain, with some resemblance to active‐break events over India. Simple trend analysis over 1958–2001 shows that the first regime has become less frequent while the second becomes much more dominant. Both undergo a change in structure contributing to the total OLR trend over the ERA‐40 period. Stratifying the data according to a large‐scale dynamical index of monsoon interannual variability, we show the regime occurrence to be strongly perturbed by the seasonal condition, in agreement with conceptual ideas. This technique could be used to further examine predictability issues relating the seasonal mean and intraseasonal monsoon variability or to explore changes in monsoon behavior in centennial‐scale model integrations.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Walker Institute
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:17398
Uncontrolled Keywords:Asian monsoon regimes; predictability; ERA-40
Publisher:American Geophysical Union


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