Increased extreme precipitation in western North America from cut-off lows under a warming climate

Pinheiro, H., Ambrizzi, T. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2025) Increased extreme precipitation in western North America from cut-off lows under a warming climate. Meteorology, 4 (2). 11. ISSN 2674-0494 doi: 10.3390/meteorology4020011

Abstract/Summary

Cut-off Low (COL) pressure systems significantly influence local weather in regions with high COL frequency, particularly in western North America. Nonetheless, future changes in COL frequency, intensity, and precipitation patterns remain uncertain. This study examines projected COL changes and their drivers in western North America under a high greenhouse gas concentra-tion pathway (SSP585) using a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 and a feature tracking algo-rithm. We compare historical simulations (1980-2009) and future projections (2070-2099), revealing a marked increase in COL track density during summer in the northeast Pacific and western United States, while a strong decrease is projected for winter, associated with shifts in jet streams. Climate models project an increase in COL-related precipitation in future climate, with winter and spring experiencing more intense and localized precipitation, while autumn showing a more widespread precipitation pattern. Additionally, there is an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, though accompanied by large uncertainties. The projected increase in extreme precipitation high-lights the need to understand COL dynamics for effective climate adaptation in affected areas. Further research should aim to refine projections and reduce uncertainties, supporting bet-ter-informed policy and decision-making

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/120355
Identification Number/DOI	10.3390/meteorology4020011
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	MDPI
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item