Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal

Minobe, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9487-9006, Behrens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-7227, Findell, K. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1207-1637, Loeb, N. G., Meyssignac, B. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2025) Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8 (1). 138. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z

Abstract/Summary

Climate records have been broken with alarming regularity in recent years, but the events of 2023–2024 were exceptional even when accounting for recent climatic trends. Here we quantify these events across multiple variables and show how excess energy accumulation in the Earth system drove the exceptional conditions. Key factors were the positive decadal trend in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), persistent La Niña conditions beginning in 2020, and the switch to El Niño in 2023. Between 2022 and 2023, the heating from EEI was over 75% larger than during the onset of similar recent El Niño events. We show further how regional processes shaped distinct patterns of record-breaking sea surface temperatures in individual ocean basins. If the recent trend in EEI is maintained, we argue that natural fluctuations such as ENSO cycles will increasingly lead to amplified, record-breaking impacts, with 2023–2024 serving as a glimpse of future climate extremes.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/122352
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature
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