Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates

Keeping, T. R., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Prentice, I. C., van der Wiel, K. and Harrison, S. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-1903 (2025) Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates. Climate Dynamics, 64. 15. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07998-w

Abstract/Summary

Predictable modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a major influence on regional weather patterns, an important control on wildfire occurrence. Although these global climate modes have been associated with historical variability in wildfire occurrence in the United States and are used to forecast seasonal wildfire risk, precise information about the spatial pattern and magnitude of their influence is lacking and the satellite record of wildfires is too short to address these issues. Here we use wildfire occurrence model with a large ensemble of 1600 simulated years from EC-Earth3 in a recent climate (2000–2009) and a future climate corresponding to + 2 °C global warming, to characterise the impact of specific climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous US. We show that ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the 1-year lagged Tropical North Atlantic (TNA+1) have the greatest effect on annual fire occurrence—strongly contributed by the effect of these modes on hot, dry conditions in the Great Plains and precipitation in the southwestern US. El Niño is not significantly associated with wildfire occurrence in the northwestern US, contrary to expectation, but is associated with a later (earlier) wildfire season peak in the southwestern (southeastern) US. Under future warming, the AMO and PNA become a significant influence over most of the US, and the magnitude of impact of ENSO and TNA+1 increase strongly.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127787
Identification Number/DOI	10.1007/s00382-025-07998-w
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Springer
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item