Landfalling tropical cyclones significantly reduce Bangladesh's energy security

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503 (2026) Landfalling tropical cyclones significantly reduce Bangladesh's energy security. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science. ISSN 1684-9981 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

Bangladesh's rapidly expanding electricity grid is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones, yet operational impacts remain poorly quantified. In this paper, we investigate the impact of landfalling tropical cyclones and depressions on Bangladesh's energy security by combining daily reported demand met (across nine power-planning zones; December 2015 to May 2025) with cyclone track data and hazard proxies from reanalysis and satellite products. We use an event-centered composite approach for 14 named landfalling cyclones and 13 landfalling depressions, defining deficits in demand met as a percentage anomaly relative to a 60-day running mean. On cyclone landfall days, national demand met falls by an average of 19.8% , with the maximum recorded national deficit (69%) occurring during Cyclone Remal (28 May 2024). Coastal zones are disproportionately affected, with mean day 0 zone deficits of up to 38% and some events exceeding 90%. Depressions are associated with smaller, but still significant, deficits, averaging 8.3%. For named cyclones, the magnitude of the national deficit is strongly correlated with the worst-affected zone deficit ($r=0.80$, $p<0.001$), indicating that national-scale shortfalls are dominated by near-collapse in at least one zone. Cross-border analysis with West Bengal shows that the largest cyclone-related deficits are often synchronised across both regions, limiting the reliability of imported electricity during major stress events. We propose potential mitigation and adaptation policies, such as targeted hardening of coastal network assets and decentralised backup supply for critical services as cyclone-related hazards continue to intensify under climate change.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129054
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	European Geosciences Union
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