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Article

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ellis, J. and Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 (2024) A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 17 (22). pp. 8353-8372. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Boult, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2024) The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: a case study of the African elephant conservation sector. Meteorological Applications, 31 (2). e2190. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2190

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2024) Global change in agricultural flash drought over the 21st century. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 41 (2). pp. 209-220. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2366-5

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Rees, E. and Nderitu, E. (2024) A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan. Frontiers in Climate, 6. 1332233. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1332233

Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Dong, B., Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4. pp. 254-270. ISSN 2662-138X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Asfaw, D. T., Sananka, A., Aston, S., Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469 and Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 (2023) Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa. Frontiers in climate, 4. 993511. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.993511

Mauerman, M., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Diro, R., Osgood, D., Greatrex, H. and Chillongo, T. (2022) An information-theoretic approach to reconciling historical climate observations and impacts on agriculture. Weather, Climate, and Society, 14 (4). pp. 1321-1337. ISSN 1948-8327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0019.1

Ascott, M. J., Macdonald, D. M. J., Sandwidi, W. J. P., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Zongo, G., Tirogo, J. and Cook, P. (2022) Time of emergence of impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 612 (A). 128107. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128107

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2022) Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (12). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231

Cook, P. A., Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Macdonald, D. M. J. and Sorensen, J. P. R. (2022) Projected increases in potential groundwater recharge and reduced evapotranspiration under future climate conditions in West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41. 101076. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101076

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Guo, L., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Kubota, P. Y., Young, M., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Baker, J. C. A. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2022) Subseasonal prediction performance for South American land–atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1 (1). e28. ISSN 2692-4587 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.28

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Abdillahi, H. S., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. and Todd, M. C. (2022) Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35. 100402. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (9). pp. 2339-2357. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1

de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2021) Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (1). pp. 265-284. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2021) Future changes in seasonality in Eastern Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parametrised convection. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1367-1385. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0450.1

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Marsham, J. H. (2021) Extreme rainfall in East Africa October 2019 – January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather, 76 (1). pp. 26-31. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824

Taylor, J., Nicoll, M. A. C., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Jones, C. G., Tatayah, V., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Norris, K. (2021) Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change, 164. 41. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y

Ascott, M. J., Macdonald, D. M. J., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Nakohoun, P., Tirogo, J., Sandwidi, W. J. P., Bliefernicht, J., Sorensen, J. P. R. and Bossa, A. Y. (2020) In-situ observations and lumped parameter model reconstructions reveal intra-annual to multi-decadal variability in groundwater levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Water Resources Research, 56 (12). e2020WR028056. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028056

Israelsson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6181-1702, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Neves, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Torgbor, F. F., Greatrex, H., Tanu, M. and Lamptey, P. N. L. (2020) The spatial correlation structure of rainfall at the local scale over southern Ghana. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 31. 100720. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100720

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., De Kauwe, M. G. and Baldocchi, D. (2020) Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 291. 108065. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108065

Young, M., Heinrich, V., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Asfaw, D. T. (2020) Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Asfaw, D. T., Young, M., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M. C. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2020) Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1959. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, He, L. and Chen, J. M. (2019) Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth System Models due to representation of vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (11). pp. 1358-1369. ISSN 1944-9224 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006135

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2019) ‘Eastern African paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense long rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 34. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7

MacDonald, A. M., Bell, R. A., Kebede, S., Azagegn, T., Yehualaeshet, T., Pichon, F., Young, M., McKenzie, A. A., Lapworth, D. J., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Calow, R. C. (2019) Groundwater and resilience to drought in the Ethiopian Highlands. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (9). 095003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab282f

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2019) The impact of air-sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 7027-7044. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0

Dunning, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2018) Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate, 31. pp. 9719-9738. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1

Young, M. P., Chiu, J. C., Williams, C. J. R., Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Stengel, M., Fielding, M. D. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Spatio-temporal variability of warm rain events over southern West Africa from geostationary satellite observations for climate monitoring and model evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2311-2330. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3372

Asfaw, D., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2018) TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (6). pp. 2353-2371. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018

Pinnington, E., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2575-2588. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018

Dunning, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2017) Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114001. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e

Brown, M., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Asfaw, D. and Otu-Larbi, F. (2017) Monitoring drought in Ghana using TAMSAT-ALERT: a new decision support system. Weather, 72 (7). pp. 201-205. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3033

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Young, M., Greatrex, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Stein, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Nkonde, E., Senkunda, S. and Alcántara, E. M. U. (2017) A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa. Scientific Data, 4. 170063. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.63

Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Evans, J. and Hoell, A. (2016) A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Journal of Climate, 29 (23). pp. 8547-8574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1

Dunning, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (19). pp. 11405-11424. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025428

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Greatrex, H., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Young, M. (2016) Incorporating satellite data into weather index-based insurance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (10). ES203-ES206. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0148.1

Balan Sarojini, B., Stott, P. A. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2016) Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nature Climate Change, 6 (7). pp. 669-675. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2976

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Greatrex, H., Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Brown, M. (2016) The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia. Remote Sensing, 8 (4). 342. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8040342

Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45 (7-8). pp. 1727-1738. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8

Hegerl, G. C., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ingram, W. J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker, A., Dai, A., Durack, P. J., Easterling, D., Fowler, H. J., Kendon, E. J., Huffman, G. J., Liu, C., Marsh, R., New, M., Osborn, T. J., Skliris, N., Stott, P. A., Vidale, P.-L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Wijffels, S. E., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Willett, K. M. and Zhang, X. (2015) Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (7). pp. 1097-1115. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2015) Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (19). pp. 8155-8164. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065765

Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Grimes, D., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Stringer, M., Chadwick, R. and Kayitakire, F. (2014) Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53 (12). pp. 2805-2822. ISSN 1558-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0016.1

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Stringer, M., Hewison, T., Roebeling, R. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2014) The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119 (18). pp. 10619-10644. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021927

Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Mulligan, M., Ouessar, M., Faye, A. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2013) Dynamic hydrological modeling in drylands with TRMM based rainfall. Remote Sensing, 5 (12). pp. 6691-6716. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5126691

Balan Sarojini, B., Stott, P. A., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Polson, D. (2012) Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 39. L21706. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053373

Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Smith, S. J., Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Holmes, P.A.C., El-Bastawesy, M., Rambeau, C. M. C. and Mithen, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 (2012) A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 420-421. pp. 1-16. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.033

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Vianna Cuadra, S., Osborne, T. and Van Den Hoof, C. (2012) Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4). 044027. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044027

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D. I. F. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2011) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 121-131. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D. I. F. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2011) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I. Observation and modelling. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 103-119. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443, Hoskins, B. and Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2010) Water and society: past, present and future. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5107-5110. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0216

Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, El-Bastawesy, M., Holmes, P. A. C., Butterfield, D., Nuimat, S. and Jamjoum, K. (2010) A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 368 (1931). pp. 5151-5172. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0207

Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Rambeau, C. M. C. (2010) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5173-5184. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199

Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Hoskins, B. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2010) Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1931). pp. 5185-5223. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0180

Senapathi, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8883-1583, Underwood, F. M., Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Nicoll, M. A. C. and Norris, K. J. (2010) Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius. International Journal of Climatology, 30 (8). pp. 1164-1177. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1953

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D.I.F., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, O'Neill, A. and Pardo-Iguzquiza, E. (2009) Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (1). pp. 67-78. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1699

Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2009) The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics for Jordan and Israel. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10 (3). pp. 192-200. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.233

Diro, G. T., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Grimes, D. I. F. (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteorological Applications, 15 (1). pp. 73-83. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.63

Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G. and Todd, M. (2006) African climate change: Taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87 (10). pp. 1355-1366. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1355

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot Europen summer of 2003. Climate Dynamics, 28. pp. 53-66.

Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Stephenson, D. (2006) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2). pp. 113-125. ISSN 1524-1904

Johnson, H., Kovats, R. S., McGregor, G. R., Stedman, J., Gibbs, M., Walton, H., Cook, L. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) Impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality and hospital admissions. England Health Statistics Quarterly, 25. pp. 6-11.

Spencer, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Slingo, J. M., Roberts, M. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. Journal Of Climate, 18 (13). pp. 2286-2307. ISSN 1520-0442

Slingo, J., Spencer, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082, Hoskins, B., Berrisford, P. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363 (1826). pp. 25-42. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2004.1473

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) The relationship between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature and east African rainfall. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London Series A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences, 363 (1826). pp. 43-47.

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Blackburn, M., Harrison, R. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Hoskins, B. J. and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2004) Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather, 59 (8). pp. 217-223. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.74.04

Gissila, T., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Grimes, D. I. F. and Slingo, J. M. (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. International Journal Of Climatology, 24 (11). pp. 1345-1358.

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Slingo, J.M. and Sperber, K.R. (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Monthly Weather Review, 131. pp. 74-94.

Book or Report Section

Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Greatrex, H. and Young, M. (2020) TAMSAT. In: Levizzani, V., Kidd, C., Kirschbaum, D. B., Kummerow, C. D., Nakamura, K. and Turk, F. J. (eds.) Satellite Precipitation Measurement. Advances in Global Change Research, 1 (67). Springer, pp. 393-407. ISBN 9783030245672 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24568-9_22

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2011) Connecting climate and hydrological models for impacts studies. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 63-68. ISBN 9780521769570

Nortcliff, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Potter, R. (2011) Current water demands and future strategies under changing climatic conditions. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 403-414. ISBN 9780521769570

Smith, S., Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Rambeau, C. and Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 (2011) From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 218-244. ISBN 9780521769570

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Slingo, J. and Hoskins, B. (2011) Future climate of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 51-62. ISBN 9780521769570

Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Manley, R., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Guest, J., Al Numait, S. and Jamjoum, K. (2011) Future projections of water availability in a semi-arid region of the eastern Mediterranean: a case study of Wadi Hasa, Jordan. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 175-188. ISBN 9780521769570

Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Hoskins, B. and Slingo, J. (2011) Past climates of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 25-50. ISBN 9780521769570

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Black, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1396-4821 and Rambeau, C. (2011) Using proxy data, historical climate data and climate models to investigate aridification during the Holocene. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 105-112. ISBN 9780521769570

Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Holmes, P., El Bastawesy, M., Smith, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 (2011) The hydrology of the Wadi Faynan. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 157-174. ISBN 9780521769570

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Hoskins, B., Slingo, J. and Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2011) The present-day climate of the Middle East. In: Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (eds.) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 13-24. ISBN 9780521769570

Report

Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Macdonald, D. M. J., Osbahr, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0130-2313, Ciampi, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Myers, J., Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Black, E. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ascott, M., Cook, P., Davis, H., Clark, H., Talens, C., Gahi, N., Haruna, S. and Petty, E.C., (2019) Possible futures for groundwater in Burkina Faso under a changing climate. Report. Zenodo doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3533108

Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, (2019) Using Open Research to mitigate the impact of adverse weather on agriculture in Africa. Open Research Case Studies. Report. University of Reading

Diro, G. T., Grimes, D. I. F., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and O'Neill, A., (2005) Validation of area rainfall estimates over North-eastern Africa. Poster presentation. UNSPECIFIED, European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna 24-29 April.

Conference or Workshop Item

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Greatrex, H., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Price, J. (2015) Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation. In: First International electronic conference on Remote Sensing, 22 Jun - 5 Jul 2015. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ecrs-1-f002 (Vol 1: f002)

Book

Mithen, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3391-7443 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, eds. (2011) Water, life and civilisation: climate, environment and society in the Jordan Valley. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp543. ISBN 9780521769570

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