Accessibility navigation


Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. (2015) Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation. Journal of Climate, 28 (16). pp. 6381-6397. ISSN 1520-0442

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

2456Kb
[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only

1777Kb

To link to this article DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00823.1

Abstract/Summary

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:40198
Publisher:American Meteorological Society

Download Statistics for this item.

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation