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Climate predictability in the second year

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Climate predictability in the second year. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 367 (1890). pp. 913-916. ISSN 1364-503X

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0181

Abstract/Summary

In this paper, the predictability of climate arising from ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies is investigated in the HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean model. An ensemble of simulations of the twentieth century are used to provide initial conditions for a case study. The case study consists of two ensembles started from initial conditions with large differences in regional OHC in the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and parts of the West Pacific. Surface temperatures and precipitation are on average not predictable beyond seasonal time scales, but for certain initial conditions there may be longer predictability. It is shown that, for the case study examined here, some aspects of tropical precipitation, European surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea-level pressure are potentially predictable 2 years ahead. Predictability also exists in the other case studies, but the climate variables and regions, which are potentially predictable, differ. This work was done as part of the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) eScience project.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Walker Institute for Climate System Research
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:4334
Uncontrolled Keywords:Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction; climate prediction; decadal predictability; general circulation model; initial conditions
Publisher:The Royal Society

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