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Current changes in tropical precipitation

Allan, R. P., Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W. and Good, P. (2010) Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025205. ISSN 1748-9326

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205

Abstract/Summary

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Walker Institute for Climate System Research
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:5843
Publisher:Institute of Physics

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