Accessibility navigation

Why do some post-tropical cyclones impact europe?

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID:, Hodges, K. I., Baker, A. J. ORCID:, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: and Bhatia, K. T. (2022) Why do some post-tropical cyclones impact europe? Monthly Weather Review, 150 (10). pp. 2553-2571. ISSN 1520-0493

Text (Open access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-22-0111.1


Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) can bring high winds and extreme precipitation to Europe. Although the structure and intensity of observed Europe-impacting PTCs has been investigated in previous studies, a quantitative understanding of the factors important for PTCs to reach Europe has not been established. By tracking and identifying the full life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ERA5 reanalysis, we investigate why some PTCs impact Europe and why others do not, using a composite analysis. We show that PTCs that impact Europe are typically ∼4–6 m s−1 stronger at their lifetime maximum intensity and throughout the extratropical transition process. They are also twice as likely to reintensify in the midlatitudes. During ET, the Europe-impacting PTCs interact more strongly with an upstream upper-level trough in a significantly more baroclinic environment. The Europe-impacting PTCs are steered on a more poleward trajectory across a midlatitude jet streak. It is during the crossing of the jet that these cyclones often undergo their reintensification. Using contingency table analysis, TC lifetime maximum intensity, and whether post-ET reintensification occurs are shown to be significantly associated with the odds that a PTC reaches Europe. This supports our composite analysis and further indicates that TC intensity and reintensification both modulate the likelihood that a PTC will impact Europe.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:107567
Publisher:American Meteorological Society


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation