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Reversal of projected European summer precipitation decline in a stabilising climate

Dittus, A. J. ORCID:, Collins, M., Sutton, R. ORCID: and Hawkins, E. ORCID: (2024) Reversal of projected European summer precipitation decline in a stabilising climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (6). e2023GL107448. ISSN 1944-8007

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107448


Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilising climate. Here, we analyse precipitation projections in six multi-century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high-emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilisation experiments. For example, stabilisation reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilisation experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:115553
Publisher:American Geophysical Union


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