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Harrigan, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-3667, Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Alfieri, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386X, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Salamon, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Wetterhall, F., Barnard, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0558-0142, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 (2020) GloFAS-ERA5 operational global river discharge reanalysis 1979–present. Earth System Science Data, 12 (3). pp. 2043-2060. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020

Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Norton, T., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wolfenden, L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England. Geoscience Communications, 3. pp. 203-232. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020

Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934

Lavers, D. A., Ramos, M.-H., Magnusson, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Klein, B., Prudhomme, C., Arnal, L., Crochemore, L., van den Hurk, B., Weerts, A. H., Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Richardson, D. S. and Pappenberger, F. (2020) A vision for hydrological prediction. Atmosphere, 11 (3). 237. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030237

Titley, H. A., Bowyer, R. L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) A global evaluation of multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 531-545. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712

Beven, K., Asadullah, A., Bates, P., Blyth, E., Chappell, N., Child, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dadson, S., Everard, N., Fowler, H. J., Freer, J., Hannah, D. M., Heppell, K., Holden, J., Lamb, R., Lewis, H., Morgan, G., Parry, L. and Wagener, T. (2020) Developing observational methods to drive future hydrological science: can we make a start as a community? Hydrological Processes, 34 (3). pp. 868-873. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13622

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Lavado, W., Santini, W., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2020) Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: a review. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1949. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1949

Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Innovating global hydrological prediction through an Earth system approach. WMO Bulletin, 69 (1). ISSN 0042-9767

Vitolo, C., Di Napoli, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2019) Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making. Environment International, 127. pp. 21-34. ISSN 0160-4120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008

Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) Verification of heat stress thresholds for a health-based heatwave definition. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58 (6). pp. 1177-1194. ISSN 1558-8432 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0246.1

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Zsoter, E., Flamig, Z., Hoch, J. M., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Baugh, C. A. (2019) Cartograms for use in forecasting weather driven natural hazards. The Cartographic Journal, 56 (2). pp. 134-145. ISSN 0008-7041 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00087041.2018.1534358

Boelee, L., Lumbroso, D. M., Samuels, P. G. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts - a comparison of methods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12 (S1). e12516. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12516

Zsoter, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1

Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Ballard, S. P., Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Clark, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Darlington, T., Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Hawkness-Smith, L., Husnoo, N., Illingworth, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5774-8410, Kelly, G. A., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Nicol, J. C., Oxley, A., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022, Roberts, N. M., Roulstone, I., Simonin, D., Thompson, R. J. and Waller, J. A. (2019) Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project. Atmosphere, 10 (3). 125. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030125

Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Arnal, L., Emerton, R., Griffith, H., Hyslop, S., Theofanidi, S. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity. Geoscience Communications, 1. pp. 35-57. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018

Mehring, P., Geoghegan, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1401-8626, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Clark, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2018) What is going wrong with community engagement? How flood communities and flood authorities construct engagement and partnership working. Environmental Science & Policy, 89. pp. 109-115. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.009

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Vetra-Carvalho, S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Robust algorithm for detecting floodwater in urban areas using Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 12 (4). 045011. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.12.045011

Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018

Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 62 (7). pp. 1155-1165. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2

Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Arnal, L., Magnusson, L. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) The 2013/14 Thames basin floods: do improved meteorological forecasts lead to more skilful hydrological forecasts at seasonal timescales? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19. pp. 1059-1075. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0182.1

Balsamo, G., Agustì-Parareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Beljaars, A., Bidlot, J., Bousserez, N., Boussetta, S., Brown, A., Buizza, R., Buontempo, C., Chevallier, F., Choulga, M., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Cronin, M., Dahoui, M., De Rosnay, P., Dirmeyer, P., Drusch, M., Dutra, E., Ek, M., Gentine, P., Hewitt, H., Keeley, S., Kerr, Y., Kumar, S., Lupu, C., Mahfouf, J.-F., McNorton, J., Mecklenburg, S., Mogensen, K., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Orth, R., Rabier, F., Reichle, R., Ruston, B., Pappenberger, F., Sandu, I., Seneviratne, S., Tietsche, S., Trigo, I., Uijlenhoet, R., Wedi, N., Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 and Zeng, X. (2018) Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global Earth surface modelling: a review. Remote Sensing, 10 (12). 2038. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10122038

Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. J. and Wetterhall, F. (2017) How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4). 044006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796

Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

MacLeod, D., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (7). pp. 2737-2743. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2016) Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 45. pp. 178-186. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.02.004

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Trigg, M., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neal, J. C. and Bates, P. D. (2016) Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Remote Sensing of Environment, 173. pp. 15-28. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.11.018

Macleod, D. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (694). pp. 79-90. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2631

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2015) The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Frontiers in Earth Science, 3. 43. ISSN 2296-6463 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00043

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Parker, D. J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D. S. and Thielen, J. (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy, 51. pp. 278-291. ISSN 1873-6416 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016

Kauffeldt, A., Halldin, S., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Xu, C.-Y. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2015) Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (11). pp. 4411-4417. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064230

Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M. H., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A. and Salamon, P. (2015) How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction. Journal of Hydrology, 522. pp. 697-713. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.024

Beven, K., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R. and Hunter, N. (2015) Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Science China Earth Sciences, 58 (1). pp. 25-35. ISSN 1869-1897 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4

Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T. and Vitart, F. (2015) ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (1). pp. 389-407. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015

Garcia-Pintado, J., Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neal, J. C., Freer, J. and Bates, P. D. (2015) Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study. Journal of Hydrology, 523. pp. 706-724. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.084

Pagano, T. C., Wood, A. W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Clark, M. P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., Sorooshian, S. and Verkade, J. S. (2014) Challenges of operational river forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (4). pp. 1692-1707. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103

Ye, J., He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Manful, D. Y. and Li, Z. (2014) Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (682). pp. 1615-1628. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2243

Sampson, C. C., Fewtrell, T. J., O'Loughlin, F., Pappenberger, F., Bates, P., Freer, J. E. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18. pp. 2305-2324. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Giustarini, L., Garcia-Pintado, J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 28. pp. 150-159. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2013.12.002

Pappenberger, F., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Richardson, D. S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 59 (3). pp. 311-323. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0843-3

Souvignet, M., Laux, P., Freer, J., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Thinh, D. Q., Thuc, T., Cullmann, J., Nauditt, A., Flugel, W.-A., Kunstmann, H. and Ribbe, L. (2014) Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam. Hydrological Processes, 28 (4). pp. 1587-1601. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9693

Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Thielen-del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Daňhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A. J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R. J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankūnavičius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Alionte Eklund, C., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nyström, K., Sušnik, M., Hazlinger, M. and Holubecka, M. (2013) Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts. Hydology and Earth System Sciences, 17. pp. 4389-4399. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013

Parkes, B. L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Neal, J. and Demeritt, D. (2013) Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level. Earth Interactions, 17 (6). pp. 1-27. ISSN 1087-3562 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000475.1

Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (7). pp. 1720-1729. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3545

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S. , Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 147-157. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9419

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J. E. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671 part B). pp. 282-297. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1998

Parkes, , B. L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F. , He, , Y., Malamud, B. D. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2013) Assessment of a 1 hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK. Hydrology Research, 44 (1). pp. 89-105. ISSN 0029-1277 doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.025 (Vol 44 No 1 pp 89–105)

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S. J., Schaake, J., Thielen, J. and Ramos, M.-H. (2013) Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS). Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 1-4. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9679

Beven, K. J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Comment on: Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water by Eric F Wood et al. Water Resources Research, 48 (1). W01801. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010982

Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Freer, J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19. pp. 623-633. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-623-2012

Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F. and Cloke, H.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16 (11). pp. 4143-4156. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012

Bogner, K., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., De Roo, A. and Thielen, J. (2012) Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management, 10 (1). pp. 1-12. ISSN 1814-2060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16. pp. 1085-1094. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012

De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Demeritt, D., Younis, J., Kalas, M., Bodis, K., Muraro, D. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). International Journal of Digital Earth, 4 (1). pp. 77-90. ISSN 1753-8955 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2010.510302

Bao, H.-J., Zhao, L.-N., He, Y., Li, Z.-J., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Manful, D. (2011) Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 61-67. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-61-2011

Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 21-25. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-21-2011

Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Thielen, J. (2011) Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 27-32. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011

Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2011) HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (7). pp. 2391-2400. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Hannah, D. M. (2011) Large-scale hydrology: advances in understanding processes, dynamics and models from beyond river basin to global scale. Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 25 (7). pp. 991-995. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8059

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Jeffers, C., Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe, J. and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes, 24 (24). pp. 3476-3489. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7769

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 17 (2). pp. 209-222. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.194

He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Bao, H., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Li, Z., Pappenberger, F., Hu, Y., Manful, D. and Huang, Y. (2010) Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11 (2). pp. 132-138. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.270

Nobert, S., Demeritt, D. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2010) Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (1). pp. 72-79. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01056.x

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G.-P. and Oki, T. (2010) Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system. International Journal of Climatology, 30. pp. 2155-2174. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2028

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 375 (3-4). pp. 613-626. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., Freer, J. and McGregor, G. (2009) Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorological Applications, 16 (1). pp. 91-101. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.132

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Renaud, J.-P. (2008) Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 22 (11). pp. 1660-1674. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6734

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2008) Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meteorological Applications, 15 (1). pp. 181-197. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.58

Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Buizza, R. and de Roo, A. (2008) New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. L10404. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033837

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Anderson, M. G., McDonnell, J. J. and Renaud, J. -P. (2006) Using numerical modelling to evaluate the capillary fringe groundwater ridging hypothesis of streamflow generation. Journal of Hydrology, 316 (1-4). pp. 141-162. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.017

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Anderson, M. G. and Renaud, J.-P. (2006) Development of a modelling methodology for the investigation of riparian hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 20 (1). pp. 85-107. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5900

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Renaud, J.-P., Claxton, A. J., McDonnell, J. J., Anderson, M. G., Blake, J. R. and Bates, P. D. (2003) The effect of model configuration on modelled hillslope–riparian interactions. Journal of Hydrology, 279 (1-4). pp. 167-181. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00177-X

Book or Report Section

Pappenberger, F., Wedi, N., Chantry, M., Lessig, C., Lang, S., Deuben, P., Clare, M., Magnusson, L., Gascón, E., Rabier, F., McGovern, A., Badjana, H. M., de Burgh-Day, C., Luterbacher, J., Kuglitsch, M. M. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) Artificial intelligence and machine learning: revolutionizing weather forecasting. In: Stuart, L., Pusch, C., Bhasin, I. and Gallo, I. (eds.) United in Science 2024. World Meteorological Organization, pp. 16-21.

Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12

Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, di Baldassarre, G., Landeg, O., Pappenberger, F. and Ramos, M.-H. (2017) Understanding disaster risk: hazard related issues - hydrological risk: flood. In: Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T. and Clark, I. (eds.) Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017: Knowing Better and Losing Less. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 198-208. ISBN 9789279606793 doi: https://doi.org/10.2788/842809

He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Bates, P., Wetterhall, F. and Parkes, B. (2013) Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change. In: Hossain, F. (ed.) Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate. Climate Vulnerability, 5. Elsevier Sciences, pp. 241-255. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-384703-4.00508-6

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J. and Thiemig, V. (2013) Operational flood forecasting in Europe. In: Wainwright, J. and Mulligan, M. (eds.) Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity. Wiley-Blackwell, New York, pp. 315-434. ISBN 9780470749111

Report

Kimutai, J., Vautard, R., Zachariah, M., Tolasz, R., Šustková, V., Cassou, C., Skalák, P., Clarke, B., Haslinger, K., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Raju, E., Baumgart, N., Thalheimer, L., Chojnicki, B., Otto, F., Koren, G., Philip, S., Kew, S., Haro, P., Vibert, J. and Von Weissenberg, A., (2024) Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe. Report. World Weather Attribution doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/114694

Pillosu, F. M., Bucherie, A., Kruczkiewicz, A., Haiden, T., Baugh, C., Hultquist, C., Vergara, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Prudhomme, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2024) Can global rainfall forecasts identify areas at flash flood risk? Proof of concept for Ecuador. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/8e2dd559f0

Brimicombe, C., Quintino, T., Smart, S., Di Napoli, C., Hogan, R., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F., (2022) Calculating the cosine of the solar zenith angle for thermal comfort indices. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 895. Technical Report. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/o7pcu1x2b

Zsótér, E., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., de Rosnay, P., Munoz-Sabater, J. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, (2020) Trends in the GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 871. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/p9jrh0xp

Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Munoz-Sabater, J., (2020) Assimilating high resolution remotely sensed soil moisture into a distributed hydrologic model to improve runoff prediction. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 867. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK. doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/5isuz4a91

Largeron, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Martinez-de la Torre, A. and Mueller, A., (2018) Impact of the representation of the infiltration on the river flow during intense rainfall events in JULES. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 821. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, U.K..

Mueller, A., Dutra, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Balsamo, G. and Pappenberger, F., (2016) Water infiltration and redistribution in Land Surface Models. Technical Memorandum. 791. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

Dale, M., Ji, Y., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2013) Applying probabilistic flood forecasting in flood incident management. Flood & Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme. Technical Report. Environment Agency, Bristol. pp89. ISBN 9781849112963

Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F., (2012) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa. ECMWF Newsletters. 131. Technical Report. ECMWF (Spring 2012)

Balsamo, G., Albergel, A., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dee, D., (2012) Land: a global land-surface reanalysis based on ERA-interim meteorological forcing. ERA Report Series. 13. Technical Report. ECMWF

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2009) Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsletters. 121. Technical Report. ECMWF (Autumn 2009)

Conference or Workshop Item

Kalas, M., Dottori, F., Salamon, P., Wania, A., Lorini, V., Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M. H. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management? In: KDD Workshop on Data-driven Humanitarian Mapping held with the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD ’21), 14 AUG 2021, Online.

Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Bogner, K., Alfieri, L. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2013) Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale. In: Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, H01, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Jul 2013, Gothenburg, Sweden,.

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Weisheimer, A. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme. In: ECMWF/WMO/WCRP Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and climate Prediction Models, 20-24 June 2011, ECMWF, Reading UK.

Book

Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Schaake, J. C. (2019) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer. ISBN 9783642399268

Audio

Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Ferguson, M. (2021) Today's the Day It's Supposed to Rain. [Audio]