Number of items: 39.
2024
Del Sarto, G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3257-6903, Bröcker, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-6530, Flandoli, F.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2837-3784 and Kuna, T.
(2024)
Variational techniques for a one-dimensional energy balance model.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 31 (1).
pp. 137-150.
ISSN 1607-7946
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-137-2024
Weisheimer, A., Baker, L. H.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Hodson, D. L. R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Palmer, T. N., Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Smith, D. N. and Sutton, R. T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
(2024)
The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3).
E651-E659.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1
de Melo Viríssimo, F.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-3478, Stainforth, D. A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6476-733X and Bröcker, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-6530
(2024)
The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: a climate change example.
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 34 (1).
013136.
ISSN 1089-7682
doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870
2023
Bröcker, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-6530, Charlton-Perez, A. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 and Weisheimer, A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-6974
(2023)
A statistical perspective on the signal–to–noise paradox.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149 (752).
pp. 911-923.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4440
Bröcker, J.
(2023)
Existence and uniqueness for variational data assimilation in continuous time.
Mathematical Control & Related Fields, 13 (1).
pp. 94-115.
ISSN 2156-8472
doi: https://doi.org/10.3934/mcrf.2021050
Carigi, G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7611-8230, Bröcker, J. and Kuna, T.
(2023)
Exponential ergodicity for a stochastic two-layer quasi-geostrophic model.
Stochastics and Dynamics, 23 (2).
2350011.
ISSN 1793-6799
doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219493723500119
Bröcker, J.
(2023)
Testing the reliability of forecasting systems.
Journal of Applied Statistics, 50 (1).
pp. 106-130.
ISSN 1360-0532
doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2021.1981833
2022
Bröcker, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-6530
(2022)
Uniform calibration tests for forecasting systems with small lead time.
Statistics and Computing, 32.
102.
ISSN 0960-3174
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10144-9
2021
Charlton-Perez, A. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Bröcker, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-6530, Karpechko, A. Y.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0902-0414, Lee, S. H.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-0093, Sigmond, M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-9756 and Simpson, I. R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2915-1377
(2021)
A minimal model to diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (24).
ISSN 2169-8996
doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035504
2020
Bröcker, J. and Bouallègue, Z. B.
(2020)
Stratified rank histograms for ensemble forecast verification under serial dependence.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (729).
pp. 1976-1990.
ISSN 0035-9009
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3778
2019
Charlton-Perez, A. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Bröcker, J., Stockdale, T. N. and Johnson, S.
(2019)
When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio?
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (725).
pp. 3466-3478.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3631
Cafaro, C.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8063-4887, Frame, T. H. A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Methven, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Roberts, N. and Bröcker, J.
(2019)
The added value of convection-permitting ensemble
forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian
forecast driven by the global ensemble.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (721).
pp. 1780-1798.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
Bröcker, J.
(2019)
What is the correct cost functional for variational data assimilation?
Climate Dynamics, 52 (1-2).
pp. 389-399.
ISSN 0930-7575
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4146-y
2018
Bröcker, J.
(2018)
Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems under serial dependence.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (717).
pp. 2666-2675.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3379
Oljača, L., Bröcker, J. and Kuna, T.
(2018)
Almost sure error bounds for data assimilation in dissipative systems with unbounded observation noise.
SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, 17 (4).
pp. 2882-2914.
ISSN 1536-0040
doi: https://doi.org/10.1137/17M1162305
2017
Bröcker, J. and Del Magno, G.
(2017)
Asymptotic stability of the optimal filter for random chaotic maps.
Nonlinearity, 30 (5).
pp. 1809-1833.
ISSN 1361-6544
doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa639c
Bröcker, J.
(2017)
Existence and uniqueness for four-dimensional variational data assimilation in discrete time.
SIAM Journal of Applied Dynamical Systems, 16 (1).
pp. 361-374.
ISSN 1536-0040
doi: https://doi.org/10.1137/16M1068918
2016
Mallia-Parfitt, N. and Bröcker, J.
(2016)
Assessing the performance of data assimilation algorithms which employ linear error feedback.
Chaos, 26 (10).
103109.
ISSN 1089-7682
doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4965029
2015
Siegert, S., Bröcker, J. and Kantz, H.
(2015)
Skill of data-based predictions versus dynamical models.
In: Chavez, M., Ghil, M. and Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J. (eds.)
Extreme Events — Observations, Modeling, and Economics.
John Wiley & Sons, Inc, pp. 35-50.
ISBN 9781119157014
2014
Messner, J. W., Zeileis, A., Broecker, J. and Mayr, G. J.
(2014)
Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression.
Wind Energy, 17 (11).
pp. 1753-1766.
ISSN 1099-1824
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1666
Bröcker, J.
(2014)
Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates.
Physical Review E, 89 (6).
062919.
ISSN 1550-2376
doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062919
Bröcker, J.
(2014)
Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689).
pp. 1277-1282.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2434
2013
Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R.
(2013)
Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion.
Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21).
pp. 5770-5775.
ISSN 0094-8276
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630
Gundermann, J., Kantz, H. and Bröcker, J.
(2013)
Crooks' fluctuation theorem for a process on a two dimensional fluid field.
Physical Review Letters, 110 (23).
234502.
ISSN 0031-9007
doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.234502
2012
Bröcker, J.
(2012)
Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (667).
pp. 1611-1617.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1891
Bröcker, J. and Szendro, I. G.
(2012)
Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (664).
pp. 785-801.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.940
Bröcker, J.
(2012)
Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score.
Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4).
pp. 655-667.
ISSN 0930-7575
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1191-1
Siegert, S., Bröcker, J. and Kantz, H.
(2012)
Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles.
Monthly Weather Review, 140 (12).
pp. 1558-1571.
ISSN 0027-0644
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00302.1
2011
Bröcker, J., Siegert, S. and Kantz, H.
(2011)
Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''.
Monthly Weather Review, 139 (10).
pp. 3322-3324.
ISSN 0027-0644
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3658.1
Siegert, S., Bröcker, J. and Kantz, H.
(2011)
Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (660).
pp. 1887-1897.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.868
Broecker, J.
(2011)
Probability forecasts.
In: Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D. B. (eds.)
Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. 2nd ed.
Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 119-139.
ISBN 9780470660713
Bröcker, J. and Kantz, H.
(2011)
The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18 (1).
pp. 1-5.
ISSN 1023-5809
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-1-2011
2010
Bröcker, J.
(2010)
On variational data assimilation in continuous time.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (652).
pp. 1906-1919.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.695
Bröcker, J.
(2010)
Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics.
Monthly Weather Review, 138 (2).
pp. 592-604.
ISSN 0027-0644
doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3126.1
2009
Bröcker, J., Engster, D. and Parlitz, U.
(2009)
Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches.
Chaos, 19 (4).
ISSN 1089-7682
Bröcker, J.
(2009)
Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (643).
1512 - 1519.
ISSN 1477-870X
doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.456
2008
Bröcker, J. and Smith, L. A.
(2008)
From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions.
Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (4).
pp. 663-678.
ISSN 1600-0870
doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
Bröcker, J.
(2008)
On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15 (4).
pp. 661-673.
ISSN 1023-5809
doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-661-2008
Hallerberg, S., Bröcker, J. and Kantz, H.
(2008)
Prediction of extreme events.
In: Donner, R. V. and Barbosa, S. M. (eds.)
Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences : applications in climatology, geodynamics, and solar-terrestrial physics.
Lecture notes in earth sciences, 112.
Springer, Berlin ; London, pp. 35-59.
ISBN 9783540789376
This list was generated on Sat Aug 31 23:42:09 2024 UTC.