Accessibility navigation


How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Harvey, B. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I. (2012) How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18707. ISSN 1944–8007

[img]
Preview
Text (Open Access (OnlineOpen)) - Published Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

1462Kb

To link to this article DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052873

Abstract/Summary

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Environmental Systems Science Centre
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:33376
Uncontrolled Keywords:CMIP3;CMIP5;consensus;inter-annual variability
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

Download Statistics for this item.

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation