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Hillier, J. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0221-8383, Bloomfield, H. C., Manning, C., Garry, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9640-6675, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bates, P. and Kumar, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2253-4129 (2025) Increasingly seasonal jet stream raises risk of co‐occurring flooding and extreme wind in Great Britain. International Journal of Climatology, 45 (5). e8763. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: 10.1002/joc.8763

O'Neill, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6527-5334, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Cheffings, C., Norris, K. and Pettorelli, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1594-6208 (2024) Investigating odonates' response to climate change in Great Britain: a tale of two strategies. Diversity and Distributions. e13816. ISSN 1472-4642 doi: 10.1111/ddi.13816

Vessey, A. F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2024) The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 24 (6). pp. 2115-2132. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: 10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024

O'Neill, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6527-5334, Häkkinen, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1404-5798, Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Cheffings, C., Norris, K. and Pettorelli, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1594-6208 (2023) Investigating the potential of social media and citizen science data to track changes in species' distributions. Ecology and Evolution, 13 (5). e10063. ISSN 2045-7758 doi: 10.1002/ece3.10063

Sainsbury, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5626-5583, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bhatia, K. T. and Bourdin, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2635-5654 (2022) Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk? Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (4). pp. 1359-1379. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Bhatia, K. T. (2022) What governs the interannual variability of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 35 (12). pp. 3627-3641. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0712.1

Bresson, H., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Zappa, G. and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2022) The response of Northern Hemisphere polar lows to climate change in a 25 km high-resolution global climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (4). e2021JD035610. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2021JD035610

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Maraun, D. (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 4143-4162. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4172

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Cook, P., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2020) The response of the northern hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (23). e2020JD032701. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2020JD032701

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6). pp. 1225-1245. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3

Ossó, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2020) Development, amplification, and decay of Atlantic/European summer weather patterns linked to spring North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate, 33 (14). pp. 5939-5951. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0613.1

Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Pinto, J. G. (2020) The role of secondary cyclones and cyclone families for the North Atlantic storm track and clustering over western Europe. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (728). pp. 1184-1205. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3733

Vessey, A., F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2020) An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets. Climate Dynamics, 54. pp. 2777-2795. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05142-4

Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2019) Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model. Journal of Climate, 32 (22). pp. 7763-7781. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0054.1

Ossó, A., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2019) Impact of air-sea coupling on northern hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon-desert teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 5063-5078. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04846-6

Hoke, W., Swierczynski, T., Braesicke, P., Lochte, K., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Drews, M., Gregow, H., Ludwig, R., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Palazzi, E., Sannino, G. and Smedsrud, L. H. (2019) The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): collaboration from bottom-up. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 46. pp. 1-10. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: 10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Falling trend of western disturbances in future climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 5037-5051. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0601.1

Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F. C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Colfescu, I., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3537-3555. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Polo, I., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Stevens, D. P. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 921-937. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2

Osso, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2018) Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (1). pp. 59-63. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1713146114

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Johnson, S. J., Roberts, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S. and Strachan, J. (2018) Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (7). pp. 3933-3950. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2018) A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aad5c5

Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Pinto, J. G. (2018) The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 18. pp. 2991-3006. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: 10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2017) Attribution of forced decadal climate change in coupled and uncoupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments. Journal of Climate, 30 (16). pp. 6203-6223. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1

Priestley, M. D. K., Pinto, J. G., Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2017) The role of cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014. Weather, 72 (7). pp. 187-192. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.3025

Hawcroft, M., Dacre, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Forbes, R., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Stein, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 (2017) Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 48 (7). pp. 2255-2278. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2017) Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1537-1554. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2016) The 2015 European heat wave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97. S57-S62. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2016) Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12). 124025. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124025

Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (5). pp. 1913-1924. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2016) Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones? Climate Dynamics, 47 (3-4). pp. 679-695. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z

Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Karremann, M. K. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method. Tellus A, 68. 32204. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2015) Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation. Journal of Climate, 28 (24). pp. 9606-9622. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0316.1

Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2015) A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component. Climate Dynamics, 45 (11). pp. 3205-3226. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2534-0

Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Pinto, J. G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Zappa, G. (2015) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (693). pp. 3076-3087. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2591

Pearson, K. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1466-1472. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2428

Lloyd-Hughes, B., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2013) An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (8). pp. 2024-2035. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.3570

Marathayil, D., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Levine, R. C. (2013) Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028

Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2012) How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophysical Research Letters, 39. ISSN 0094-8276

Roberts, M. J., Clayton, A., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Vidale, P.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Norton, W., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, D. P., Stevens, I., Wood, R. A. and Slingo, J. (2009) Impact of resolution on the tropical pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. Journal of Climate, 22 (10). pp. 2541-2556. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1

Challinor, A., Osborne, T. M., Morse, A., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Wheeler, T. R., Weller, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082 and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2009) Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (6). pp. 836-848. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

Book or Report Section

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dixon, R. (2017) Extra-tropical cyclones. In: Foote, M., Hillier, J., Mitchell-Wallace, K. and Jones, M. (eds.) Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioners Guide. Wiley, Hoboken, USA, pp. 202-208, Chapter 3.3. ISBN 9781118906040 doi: 10.1002/9781118906057

De Tero, G., Toniazzo, T. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Ethiopian rainfall in climate models. In: Williams , C. J. R. and Kniveton , D. R. (eds.) African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspective. Advances in Global Change Research (43). Springer, pp. 51-70. ISBN 9789048138418