Article

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Arnell, N. W., Kay, A. L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A. C. and Lowe, J. A. (2021) Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators. Climate Risk Management, 31. 100265. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Pinnington, E., Wainwright, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Lahive, F., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Cook, P., Daymond, A., Hadley, P., McGuire, P. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966, Verhoef, A. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (1). 014009. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3

Brimicombe, C., Di Napoli, C., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Pappenberger, F., Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Borderless heat hazards with bordered impacts. Earth's Future, 9 (9). e2021EF002064. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002064

Brimicombe, C., Porter, J. J., Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Heatwaves: an invisible risk in UK policy and research. Environmental Science & Policy, 116. pp. 1-7. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.10.021

Daron, J., Allen, M., Bailey, M., Ciampi, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Costella, C., Fournier, N., Graham, R., Hall, K., Kane, C., Lele, I., Petty, C., Pinder, N., Pirret, J., Stacey, J. and Ticehurst, H. (2021) Integrating seasonal climate forecasts into adaptive social protection in the Sahel. Climate and Development, 13 (6). pp. 543-550. ISSN 1756-5537 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1825920

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Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S. B., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E., Lewis, E., Schaer, C., Sharma, A., Villarini, G., Wasko, C. and Zhang, X. (2021) Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2. pp. 107-122. ISSN 2662-138X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6

Hochet, A., Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729 and Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 (2021) Global heat balance and heat uptake in potential temperature coordinates. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 2021-2035. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05832-7

Liu, F., Luo, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-3958, Li, Y., Zheng, X., Zhang, C. and Qian, H. (2021) Revisiting physical distancing threshold in indoor environment using infection-risk-based modeling. Environment International, 153. 106542. ISSN 0160-4120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2021.106542

Liu, F., Qian, H., Luo, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-3958 and Zheng, X. (2021) The impact of indoor thermal stratification on the dispersion of human speech droplets. Indoor Air, 31 (2). pp. 369-382. ISSN 1600-0668 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ina.12737

Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107 (2021) Spiciness theory revisited, with new views on neutral density, orthogonality and passiveness. Ocean Science, 17 (1). pp. 203-219. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-203-2021

Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M. and Zsoter, E. (2021) Key factors influencing the severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (7). pp. 1801-1817. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0250.1

Urban, A., Di Napoli, C. D., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Kyselý, J., Pappenberger, F., Sera, F., Schneider, R., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Acquaotta, F., Ragettli, M. S., Íñiguez, C., Tobias, A., Indermitte, E., Orru, H., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N. R. I., Pascal, M., Huber, V., Schneider, A., de Donato, F., Michelozzi, P. and Gasparrini, A. (2021) Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe. Environmental Research, 198. 111227. ISSN 0013-9351 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111227

Yang, X., Yang, H., Ou, C., Luo, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-3958 and Hang, J. (2021) Airborne transmission of pathogen-laden expiratory droplets in open outdoor space. Science of the Total Environment, 773. 145537. ISSN 0048-9697 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145537

Yeh, S.-W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4549-1686, Song, S.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1158, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, An, S.-I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429X and Shin, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3199-7646 (2021) Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4 (1). 53. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6

Young, H. R., Shepherd, T. G., Acidri, J., Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C., Seaman, J. and Todman, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X (2021) Storylines for decision-making: climate and food security in Namibia. Climate and Development, 13 (6). pp. 515-528. ISSN 1756-5537 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1808438

van der Schrier, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7395-8023, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Osso, A., Sousa, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0296-4204, Van de Vyver, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7142-4693, Van Schaeybroeck, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9507-7929, Coscarelli, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2779-1100, Pasqua, A. A., Petrucci, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6918-1135, Curley, M., Mietus, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9488-071X, Filipiak, J., Štěpánek, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8956-5590, Zahradníček, P., Brázdil, R., Řezníčková, L., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., Trigo, R. and Aguilar, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8384-377X (2021) The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers. Climate of the Past, 17 (5). pp. 2201-2221. ISSN 1814-9332 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021

Book or Report Section

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) How and why Earth's climate is changing. In: Weather - A force of nature: Spectacular images from weather photographer of the year. Natural History Museum, London, England, pp. 6-7, pp. 192. ISBN 9780565095253

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-2. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Rao, K. A., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Niang, A. D., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X. and Zickfeld., K. (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002

Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Plumpton, H. (2021) Future climate of Africa. In: Nuttall, P. (ed.) Climate, Ticks and Disease. CABI Climate Change Series. CAB International, UK. ISBN 9781789249637

Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C. and Walker, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2176-8604 (2021) Supporting climate-resilient planning at national and district levels: a pathway to multi-stakeholder decision-making in Uganda. In: Conway, D. and Vincent, K. (eds.) Climate Risk in Africa: Adaptation and Resilience. Palgrave-Macmillan, pp. 131-145. ISBN 9783030611590 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6_8

Dennehy, Z., Bilsborrow, J., Konyves, K., David, J. and Culham, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7440-0133 (2021) Dating daffodils to save species. In: Daffodil, Snowdrop and Tulip Yearbook. Royal Horticultural Society, pp. 17-19. ISBN 9780201379624

Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T. Y., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Mba, W. P., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J. and Zolina, O. (2021) Water cycle changes. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonno, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to 45 the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1055-1210. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.010

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004

Hinkel, J., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Todman, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-294X, Fairgreave, R., Plumpton, H., Shepherd, T., Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Petty, C. and Acidri, J. (2021) Policy, governance and institutions for reducing and managing losses and damages - decision making under uncertainty. In: Buckle, S., Lamhauge, N., Rocha, M., Stadler, B. and Chhun, B. (eds.) Managing climate risks, facing up to losses and damages. OECD Publishing, Paris, pp. 185-238. ISBN 9789264344396 doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/55ea1cc9-en

Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., Zhou, B. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1513-1766. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013

Report

Ciampi, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Myers, J., Plumpton, H., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Petty, C., (2021) NIMFRU briefing note: improving disaster response through a Livelihood Impact Based (LIMB) Flood Forecasting System. Technical Report. Zenodo

Ciampi, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Myers, J., Plumpton, H., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Petty, C., (2021) Reducing the cost and impact of disasters: National-scale Impact Based Forecasting of Flood Risk for Uganda. Technical Report. CERN, Geneva. pp5.