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Number of items: 103.


Alexander-Turner, R., Ortega, P. and Robson, J. I. (2018) How robust are the surface temperature fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on monthly time‐scales? Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (8). pp. 3559-3567. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Allan, R. and Liu, C. (2018) Overview of climate models and tropical extremes. In: Vuruputur, V., Sukhatme, J., Murtugudde, R. and Roca, R. (eds.) Tropical Extremes: Natural Variability and Trends. Elsevier, pp. 139-164. ISBN 9780128092484

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C., Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M. and Titchner, H. (2018) Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (16). pp. 8490-8499. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Asfaw, D., Black, E., Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R. and Quaife, T. (2018) TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (6). pp. 2353-2371. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:


Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Sutton, R. T., Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Balaji, V., Taylor, K. E., Juckes, M., Lawrence, B. N., Durack, P. J., Lautenschlager, M., Blanton, C., Cinquini, L., Denvil, S., Elkington, M., Guiglielmo, F., Guilyardi, E., Hassell, D., Kharin, S., Kindermann, S., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Stockhause, M., Weigel, T. and Williams, D. (2018) Requirements for a global data infrastructure in support of CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (9). pp. 3659-3680. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Bloomfield, H., Brayshaw, D. J., Shaffrey, L., Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2018) The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:

Bloomfield, H. C., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I. and Vidale, P. L. (2018) A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:

Boljka, L., Shepherd, T. G. and Blackburn, M. (2018) On the coupling between barotropic and baroclinic modes of extratropical atmospheric variability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1853-1871. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:

Booth, B. B., Harris, G. R., Jones, A., Wilcox, L., Hawcroft, M. and Carslaw, K. S. (2018) Comments on “rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing”. Journal of Climate, 31 (22). pp. 9407-9412. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Brayshaw, D. (2018) Weather, climate and the nature of predictability. In: Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry. Palgrave Pivot, Basingstoke, pp. 85-95. ISBN 9783319684178 doi:

Brayshaw, D. (2018) The nature of weather and climate impacts in the energy sector. In: Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry. Palgrave Pivot, Basingstoke, pp. 151-160. ISBN 9783319684178 doi:


Ceppi, P., Zappa, G., Shepherd, T. G. and Gregory, J. M. (2018) Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 31 (3). pp. 1091-1105. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ferranti, L. and Lee, R. W. (2018) The influence of the stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (713). pp. 1140-1151. ISSN 1477-870X doi:

Chen, W. and Dong, B. (2018) Drivers of the severity of the extreme hot summer of 2015 in western China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32 (6). pp. 1002-1010. ISSN 2198-0934 doi:

Chevuturi, A., Dimri, A. P. and Thayyen, R. J. (2018) Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131 (1-2). pp. 531-545. ISSN 1434-4483 doi:

Chevuturi, A., Klingaman, N. P., Turner, A. G. and Hannah, S. (2018) Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenarios. Earth's Future, 6 (3). pp. 339-358. ISSN 2328-4277 doi:

Christiansen, B., Alvarez-Castro, C., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Colfescu, I., Cowan, T., Eden, J., Hauser, M., Hempelmann, N., Klehmet, K., Lott, F., Nangini, C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Orth, R., Stott, P., Tett, S., Vautard, R., Wilcox, L. and Yiou, P. (2018) Was the cold European winter 2009-2010 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study. Journal of Climate. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Coceal, O., Bohnenstengel, S. I. and Kotthaus, S. (2018) Detection of sea-breeze events around London using a fuzzy-logic algorithm. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19 (9). e846. ISSN 1530-261X doi:

Collins, M., Minobe, S., Barreiro, M., Bordoni, S., Kaspi, Y., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Keenlyside, N., Manzini, E., O'Reilly, C. H., Sutton, R., Xie, S.-P. and Zolina, O. (2018) Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change, 8. pp. 101-108. ISSN 1758-678X doi:

Curio, J., Chen, Y., Schiemann, R., Turner, A. G., Wong, K. C., Hodges, K. and Li, Y. (2018) Comparison of a manual and an automated tracking method for Tibetan Plateau vortices. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 965-980. ISSN 0256-1530 doi:


Day, J. J., Holland, M. M. and Hodges, K. I. (2018) Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3885-3903. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Dittus, A. J., Karoly, D. J., Donat, M. G., Lewis, S. C. and Alexander, L. V. (2018) Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 21. pp. 1-9. ISSN 2212-0947 doi:

Dunning, C., Black, E. and Allan, R. (2018) Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate, 31. pp. 9719-9738. ISSN 0894-8755 doi:

de Mora, L., Yool, A., Palmieri, J., Sellar, A., Kuhlbrodt, T., Popova, E., Jones, C. and Allen, J. I. (2018) BGC-val: a model- and grid-independent Python toolkit to evaluate marine biogeochemical models. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (10). pp. 4215-4240. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:


George, G., Sarangi, C., Tripathi, S. N., Chakraborty, T. and Turner, A. (2018) Vertical structure and radiative forcing of monsoon clouds over Kanpur during the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (4). pp. 2152-2174. ISSN 2169-8996 doi:

Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T., Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., Calov, R., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kennedy, J. H., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Rodehacke, C., Rückamp, M., Saito, F., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., van de Wal, R. and Ziemen, F. A. (2018) Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison. The Cryosphere, 12 (4). pp. 1433-1460. ISSN 1994-0424 doi:

Goulart, E. V., Coceal, O. and Belcher, S. E. (2018) Dispersion of a passive scalar within and above an urban street network. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 166 (3). pp. 351-366. ISSN 0006-8314 doi:

Grose, M. R., Gregory, J., Colman, R. and Andrews, T. (2018) What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (3). pp. 1559-1566. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Guo, L., Klingaman, N. P., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G. and Stephan, C. C. (2018) The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability. Climate Dynamics, 51 (11-12). pp. 4139-4156. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:


Harvey, B., Methven, J. and Ambaum, M. (2018) An adiabatic mechanism for the reduction of jet meander amplitude by potential vorticity filamentation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75. pp. 4091-4106. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:

Hertwig, D., Soulhac, L., Fuka, V., Auerswald, T., Carpentieri, M., Hayden, P., Robins, A., Xie, Z.-T. and Coceal, O. (2018) Evaluation of fast atmospheric dispersion models in a regular street network. Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 18 (4). pp. 1007-1044. ISSN 1567-7419 doi:

Hirons, L. and Turner, A. (2018) The impact of Indian Ocean mean-state biases in climate models on the representation of the East African short rains. Journal of Climate, 31 (16). pp. 6611-6631. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P. and Woolnough, S. J. (2018) The impact of air–sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (2). pp. 550-559. ISSN 1942-2466 doi:

Howard, E. and Washington, R. (2018) Characterizing the synoptic expression of the Angola low. Journal of Climate, 31 (17). pp. 7147-7165. ISSN 0894-8755 doi:

Hunt, K. M. R., Curio, J., Turner, A. G. and Schiemann, R. (2018) Subtropical westerly jet influence on occurrence of western disturbances and Tibetan plateau vortices. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (16). pp. 8629-8636. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2018) The evolution, seasonality, and impacts of western disturbances. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 278-290. ISSN 1477-870X doi:

Hunt, K. M. R., Turner, A. G. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2018) Extreme daily rainfall in Pakistan and north India: scale-interactions, mechanisms, and precursors. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (4). pp. 1005-1022. ISSN 0027-0644 doi:

Hyder, P., Edwards, J. M., Allan, R. P., Hewitt, H. T., Bracegirdle, T. J., Gregory, J. M., Wood, R. A., Meijers, A. J. S., Mulcahy, J., Field, P., Furtado, K., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Josey, S. A., Liu, C., Roberts, C. D., Sanchez, C., Ridley, J., Thorpe, L., Hardiman, S. C., Mayer, M., Berry, D. I. and Belcher, S. E. (2018) Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. Nature Communications, 9 (1). 3625. ISSN 2041-1723 doi:


Kamieniecki, J. A., Ambaum, M. H. P., Plant, R. S. and Woolnough, S. J. (2018) The implications of an idealised large-scale circulation for mechanical work done by tropical convection. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (8). pp. 2533-2547. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:

Kuhlbrodt, T., Jones, C. G., Sellar, A., Storkey, D., Blockley, E., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Graham, T., Ridley, J., Blaker, A., Calvert, D., Copsey, D., Ellis, R., Hewitt, H., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Mulcahy, J., Siahaan, A. and Walton, J. (2018) The low-resolution version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: development and evaluation for global climate. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (11). pp. 2865-2888. ISSN 1942-2466 doi:


Lawrence, B. N., Rezny, M., Budich, R., Bauer, P., Behrens, J., Carter, M., Deconinck, W., Ford, R., Maynard, C., Mullerworth, S., Osuna, C., Porter, A., Serradell, K., Valcke, S., Wedi, N. and Wilson, S. (2018) Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers? Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (5). pp. 1799-1821. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Lee, J. C. K. and Klingaman, N. P. (2018) The effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Met Office Unified Model Global Ocean Mixed Layer configuration. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19 (5). e816. ISSN 1530-261X doi:

Lee, R. W., Woollings, T. J., Hoskins, B. J., Williams, K. D., O'Reilly, C. H. and Masato, G. (2018) Impact of Gulf Stream SST biases on the global atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics, 51 (9-10). pp. 3369-3387. ISSN 1432-0894 doi:

Li, C., Tian, Q., Yu, R., Zhou, B., Xia, J., Burke, C., Dong, B., Tett, S. F. B., Freychet, N., Lott, F. and Ciavarella, A. (2018) Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (1). 014015. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:

Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. (2018) Unrealistic increases in wind speed explain reduced eastern Pacific heat flux in reanalyses. Journal of Climate, 31 (8). pp. 2981-2993. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Liu, H., Liu, X. and Dong, B. (2018) Influence of Central Siberian snow‐albedo feedback on the spring East Asian dust cycle and connection with the preceding winter Arctic oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (23). 13,368-13,385. ISSN 2169-8996 doi:


Martinez-Alvarado, O., Maddison, J., Gray, S. and Williams, K. (2018) Atmospheric blocking and upper-level Rossby wave forecast skill dependence on model configuration. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2165-2181. ISSN 1477-870X doi:

McLean, L. J., George, S., Ierodiaconou, D., Kirkwood, R. J. and Arnould, J. P.Y. (2018) Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals. PeerJ, 6. e5786. ISSN 2167-8359 doi:

Menary, M. B., Kuhlbrodt, T., Ridley, J., Andrews, M. B., Dimdore-Miles, O. B., Deshayes, J., Eade, R., Gray, L., Ineson, S., Mignot, J., Roberts, C. D., Robson, J., Wood, R. A. and Xavier, P. (2018) Preindustrial control simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (12). pp. 3049-3075. ISSN 1942-2466 doi:

Menon, A., Turner, A. G., Martin, G. M. and MacLachlan, C. (2018) Modelling the moistening of the free troposphere during the northwestward progression of Indian monsoon onset. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (713). pp. 1152-1168. ISSN 1477-870X doi:

Mora, C., Spirandelli, D., Franklin, E. C., Lynham, J., Kantar, M. B., Miles, W., Smith, C. Z., Freel, K., Moy, J., Louis, L. V., Barba, E. W., Bettinger, K., Frazier, A. G., Colburn IX, J. F., Hanasaki, N., Hawkins, E., Hirabayashi, Y., Knorr, W., Little, C. M., Emanuel, K., Sheffield, J., Patz, J. A. and Hunter, C. L. (2018) Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8. pp. 1062-1071. ISSN 1758-678X doi:


Novakova, L., Ambaum, M. H. P. and Harvey, B. J. (2018) Baroclinic adjustment and dissipative control of storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (9). pp. 2955-2970. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:


Palmer, M. D., Harris, G. R. and Gregory, J. M. (2018) Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to the thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (8). 084003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi:

Peatman, S. C. and Klingaman, N. P. (2018) The Indian summer monsoon in MetUM-GOML2.0: effects of air–sea coupling and resolution. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (11). pp. 4693-4709. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Peatman, S. C., Methven, J. and Woolnough, S. J. (2018) Isolating the effects of moisture entrainment on convectively coupled equatorial waves in an aquaplanet GCM. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (9). pp. 3139-3157. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:

Peters, W., Van der Velde, I., Van Schaik, E., Miller, J., Ciais, P., Duarte, H., van der Laan-Luijkx, I., Van der Molen, M., Scholze, M., Schaefer, K., Vidale, P. L., Verhoef, A., Warlind, D., Zhu, D., Tans, P., Vaughn, B. and White, J. (2018) Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental-scale. Nature Geoscience, 11. pp. 744-748. ISSN 1752-0894 doi:

Pinnington, E., Quaife, T. and Black, E. (2018) Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2575-2588. ISSN 1027-5606 doi:

Planton, Y., Vialard, J., Guilyardi, E., Lengaigne, M. and Izumo, T. (2018) Western Pacific oceanic heat content: a better predictor of La Niña than of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (18). pp. 9824-9833. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Priestley, M. D. K., Dacre, H. F., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I. and Pinto, J. G. (2018) The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 18. pp. 2991-3006. ISSN 1684-9981 doi:


Qian, C., Wang, J., Dong, H., Yin, H., Burke, C., Ciavarella, A., Dong, B., Freychet, N., Lott, F. C. and Tett, S. F. B. (2018) Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China. In: Herring, S. C., Christidis, N., Hoell, A., Kossin, J. P., Schreck III, C. J. and Stott, P. A. (eds.) Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective. American Meteorological Society, s118-s122. doi: (Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 99, No. 1, January 2018)


Rai, P., Joshi, M., Dimri, A. P. and Turner, A. (2018) The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics, 50 (11-12). pp. 4149-4169. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Raoult, B., Di Fatta, G., Pappenberger, F. and Lawrence, B. (2018) Fast retrieval of weather analogues in a multi-petabytes archive using wavelet-based fingerprints. In: International Conference on Computational Science, 11-13 June 2018, Wuxi, China, pp. 697-710. doi:

Rastogi, D., Ashfaq, M., Leung, L. R., Ghosh, S., Saha, A., Hodges, K. and Evans, K. (2018) Characteristics of Bay of Bengal monsoon depressions in the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (13). pp. 6637-6645. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Roberts, A. J., Woodage, M. J., Marsham, J. H., Highwood, E. J., Ryder, C. L., McGinty, W., Wilson, S. and Crook, J. (2018) Can explicit convection improve modelled dust in summertime West Africa? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (12). pp. 9025-9048. ISSN 1680-7316 doi:

Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C., Hewitt, H. T., Bates, C., Berthou, S., Chang, P., Christensen, H. M., Danilov, S., Demory, M.-E., Griffies, S. M., Haarsma, R., Jung, T., Martin, G., Minobe, S., Ringler, T., Satoh, M., Schiemann, R., Scoccimarro, E., Stephens, G. and Wehner, M. F. (2018) The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. pp. 2341-2359. ISSN 1520-0477 doi:

Robson, J., Polo, I., Hodson, D. L. R., Stevens, D. P. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2018) Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 921-937. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Robson, J., Sutton, R. T., Archibald, A., Cooper, F., Christensen, M., Gray, L. J., Holliday, N. P., Macintosh, C., McMillan, M., Moat, B., Russo, M., Tilling, R., Carslaw, K., Desbruyères, D., Embury, O., Feltham, D. L., Grosvenor, D. P., Josey, S., King, B., Lewis, A., McCarthy, G. D., Merchant, C., New, A. L., O'Reilly, C. H., Osprey, S. M., Read, K., Scaife, A., Shepherd, A., Sinha, B., Smeed, D., Smith, D., Ridout, A., Woollings, T. and Yang, M. (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (12). pp. 5050-5076. ISSN 0899-8418 doi:


Saenko, O. A., Yang, D. and Gregory, J. M. (2018) Impact of mesoscale eddy transfer heat uptake in an eddy-parameterizing ocean model. Journal of Climate, 31 (20). pp. 8589-8606. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Sanchez-Franks, A., Kent, E. C., Matthews, A. J., Webber, B. G. M., Peatman, S. C. and Vinayachandran, P. N. (2018) Intraseasonal variability of air-sea fluxes over the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon. Journal of Climate, 31 (17). pp. 7087-7109. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Schiemann, R., Vidale, P. L., Shaffrey, L. C., Johnson, S. J., Roberts, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S. and Strachan, J. (2018) Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (7). pp. 3933-3950. ISSN 1027-5606 doi:

Schmidt, A., Mills, M. J., Ghan, S., Gregory, J. M., Allan, R. P., Andrews, T., Bardeen, C. G., Conley, A., Forster, P. M., Gettelman, A., Portmann, R. W., Solomon, S. and Toon, O. B. (2018) Volcanic radiative forcing from 1979 to 2015. Journal of Geophysical Research, 123 (22). pp. 12491-12508. ISSN 0148-0227 doi:

Schurer, A. P., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M. E., Scott, V. and Tett, S. F. B. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target. Nature Geoscience, 11. pp. 220-221. ISSN 1752-0894 doi:

Shonk, J. K. .P., Guilyardi, E., Toniazzo, T., Woolnough, S. J. and Stockdale, T. (2018) Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 939-954. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G. A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X. and Yeager, S. (2018) Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (21). pp. 11895-11903. ISSN 0094-8276 doi:

Sparrow, S. N., Su, Q., Tian, F., Li, S., Chen, Y., Chen, W., Luo, F., Freychet, N., Lott, F. C., Dong, B., Tett, S. and Wallom, D. (2018) Attributing human influence on July 2017 Chinese heatwave: the influence of sea-surface temperatures. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (11). ISSN 1748-9326 doi:

Stammer, D., Bracco, A., Braconnot, P., Brasseur, G. P., Griffies, S. M. and Hawkins, E. (2018) Science directions in a post-COP21-world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information. Earth's Future, 6 (11). pp. 1498-1507. ISSN 2328-4277 doi:

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (5). pp. 1823-1847. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) Intraseasonal summer rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (8). pp. 3215-3233. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part II: intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics, 51 (1-2). pp. 17-33. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Stephan, C. C., Klingaman, N. P., Vidale, P. L., Turner, A. G., Demory, M.-E. and Guo, L. (2018) A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: interannual variability. Climate Dynamics, 50 (11-12). pp. 4405-4424. ISSN 1432-0894 doi:

Stephan, C. C., Ng, Y. H. and Klingaman, N. P. (2018) On northern-hemisphere wave patterns associated with winter rainfall events in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 1021-1034. ISSN 1861-9533 doi:

Storkey, D., Blaker, A. T., Mathiot, P., Megann, A., Aksenov, Y., Blockley, E. W., Calvert, D., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hyder, P., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rae, J. G. L. and Sinha, B. (2018) UK Global Ocean GO6 and GO7: a traceable hierarchy of model resolutions. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (8). pp. 3187-3213. ISSN 1991-9603 doi:

Sutton, R. T. (2018) ESD ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Earth System Dynamics, 9 (4). pp. 1155-1158. ISSN 2190-4987 doi:

Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T. and Gray, L. J. (2018) Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (2). pp. 415-425. ISSN 1520-0477 doi:


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Thornalley, D. J. R., Oppo, D. W., Ortega, P., Robson, J., Brierley, C. M., Davis, R., Hall, I. R., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Rose, N. L., Spooner, P. T., Yashayaev, I. and Keigwin, L. D. (2018) Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556 (7700). pp. 227-230. ISSN 0028-0836 doi:

Thornhill, G. D., Ryder, C. L., Highwood, E. J., Shaffrey, L. C. and Johnson, B. T. (2018) The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (8). pp. 5321-5342. ISSN 1680-7316 doi:

Timmermann, A., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Stein, K., Wittenberg, A. T., Yun, K.-S., Bayr, T., Chen, H.-C., Chikamoto, Y., Dewitte, B., Dommenget, D., Grothe, P., Guilyardi, E., Ham, Y.-G., Hayashi, M., Ineson, S., Kang, D., Kim, S., Kim, W., Lee, J.-Y., Li, T., Luo, J.-J., McGregor, S., Planton, Y., Power, S., Rashid, H., Ren, H.-L., Santoso, A., Takahashi, K., Todd, A., Wang, G., Wang, G., Xie, R., Yang, W.-H., Yeh, S.-W., Yoon, J., Zeller, E. and Zhang, X. (2018) El niño-southern oscillation complexity. Nature, 559 (7715). pp. 535-545. ISSN 0028-0836 doi:

Toh, Y. Y., Turner, A. G., Johnson, S. J. and Holloway, C. E. (2018) Maritime continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 777-800. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Troccoli, A., Goodess, C., Jones, P., Penny, L., Dorling, S., Harpham, C., Dubus, L., Parey, S., Claudel, S., Khong, D.-H., Bett, P. E., Thornton, H., Ranchin, T., Wald, L., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., De Felice, M., Brayshaw, D., Suckling, E., Percy, B. and Blower, J. (2018) Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: an overview of the C3S ECEM project. Advances in Science and Research, 15. pp. 191-205. ISSN 1992-0636 doi:


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Vinayachandran, P. N., Matthews, A. J., Kumar, K. V., Sanchez-Franks, A., Thushara, V., George, J., Vijith, V., Webber, B. G. M., Queste, B. Y., Roy, R., Sarkar, A., Baranowski, D. B., Bhat, G. S., Klingaman, N. P., Peatman, S. C., Parida, C., Heywood, K. J., Hall, R., Kent, B., King, E. C., Nayak, A. A., Neema, C. P., Amol, P., Lotliker, A., Kankonkar, A., Gracias, D. G., Vernekar, S., Souza, A. C. D., Valluvan, G., Pargaonkar, S. M., Dinesh, K., Giddings, J. and Joshi, M. (2018) BoBBLE: ocean-atmosphere interaction and its impact on the South Asian monsoon. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (8). pp. 1569-1587. ISSN 1520-0477 doi:


Wilcox, L. J., Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F. C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Colfescu, I., Dong, B., Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3537-3555. ISSN 0930-7575 doi:

Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Blockley, E. W., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert, D., Comer, R., Davis., P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hill, R., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schiemann, R., Storkey, D., Thorpe, L., Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A., Woollings, T. and Xavier, P. K. (2018) The Met Office Global Coupled model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 & GC3.1) configurations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (2). pp. 357-380. ISSN 1942-2466 doi:

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Wong, K. C., Liu, S., Turner, A. G. and Schiemann, R. K. (2018) Different Asian monsoon rainfall responses to idealised orography sensitivity experiments in the HadGEM3-GA6 and FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 1049-1062. ISSN 0256-1530 doi:

Woollings, T., Barnes, E., Hoskins, B., Kwon, Y.-O., Lee, R. W., Li, C., Madonna, E., McGraw, M., Parker, T., Rodrigues, R., Spensberger, C. and Williams, K. (2018) Daily to decadal modulation of jet variability. Journal of Climate, 31 (4). pp. 1297-1314. ISSN 1520-0442 doi:

Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R. and Seneviratne, S. (2018) Blocking and its response to climate change. Current Climate Change Reports, 4 (3). pp. 287-300. ISSN 2198-6061 doi:

Woolnough, S. J. (2018) The Madden-Julian Oscillation. In: Robertson, A. W. and Vitart, F. (eds.) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting. Elsevier, pp. 93-117. ISBN 9780128117149 doi:


Yang, G.-Y., Methven, J., Woolnough, S., Hodges, K. and Hoskins, B. (2018) Linking African easterly wave activity with equatorial waves and the influence of Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1783-1809. ISSN 1520-0469 doi:

Young, M. P., Chiu, J. C., Williams, C. J. R., Stein, T. H. M., Stengel, M., Fielding, M. D. and Black, E. (2018) Spatio-temporal variability of warm rain events over southern West Africa from geostationary satellite observations for climate monitoring and model evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2311-2330. ISSN 1477-870X doi:


Zhang, L., Zhou, T., Klingaman, N. P., Wu, P. and Roberts, M. (2018) The effect of horizontal resolution on the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35 (8). pp. 1003-1020. ISSN 0256-1530 doi:

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