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Article

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2023) Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4). e2022MS003537. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2022MS003537

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Hillier, J., Griffin, A., Kay, A. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Pianosi, F., James, R., Kumar, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2253-4129, Champion, A. and Bates, P. D. (2023) Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales. Weather and Climate Extremes, 39. 100550. ISSN 22120947 doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100550

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Bhatia, K. T. (2022) Why do some post-tropical cyclones impact europe? Monthly Weather Review, 150 (10). pp. 2553-2571. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-22-0111.1

Vessey, A. F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Day, J. J. (2022) The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (3). pp. 1097-1112. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 (2022) Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Nature Communications, 13. 1148. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28816-5

Hunt, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2020) The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya. Climate Dynamics, 55 (7-8). pp. 2287-2307. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05383-3

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350 and Bhatia, K. T. (2020) How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk? Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18). e2020GL089853. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2020GL089853

Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16). pp. 10159-10167. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2019GL084402

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2019) Representation of western disturbances in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 1997-2011. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0420.1

Thornhill, G. D., Ryder, C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9892-6113, Highwood, E. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Johnson, B. T. (2018) The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (8). pp. 5321-5342. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-18-5321-2018

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Scaife, A. A. (2018) Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1). e437-e453. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.5382

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) The evolution, seasonality, and impacts of western disturbances. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 278-290. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3200

Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2018) The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabff9

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Stevens, D. P., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Polo, I., Stevens, I., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lister, G., Iwi, A., Smith, D. and Stephens, A. (2017) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1). pp. 297-311. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x

Kennedy, D., Parker, T., Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7250-7258. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2016GL069725

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Woollings, T. J. (2015) Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks. Climate Dynamics, 45 (9). pp. 2847-2860. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2014) The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9). S61-S66. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2014) The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Climate Dynamics, 42 (9-10). pp. 2455-2468. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1997-0

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL057630

Guo, L., Highwood, E., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13. pp. 1521-1534. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2012) How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18707. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052873

Keeley, S., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (668). pp. 1774-1783. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.1912

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science Discussion, 8. pp. 219-246. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/osd-8-219-2011

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D.R., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science, 7 (4). pp. 471-486. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-7-471-2011

Toniazzo, T., Abel, S. J., Wood, R., Mechoso, C. R., Allen, G. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (10). pp. 4977-5009. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: 10.5194/acp-11-4977-2011

Toniazzo, T., Mechoso, C. R., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Slingo, J. M. (2010) Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1309-1329. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0703-8

Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2010) Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 23 (7). pp. 1621-1635. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, I., Norton, W., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Harle, J. D., Jrrar, A., Stevens, D. P., Woodage, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Clark, D. B., Clayton, A., Cole, J. W., Wilson, S. S., Connolley, W. M., Davies, T. M., Iwi, A. M., Johns, T. C., King, J. C., New, A. L., Slingo, J. M., Slingo, A., Steenman-Clark, L. and Martin, G. M. (2009) U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation. Journal of Climate, 22 (8). pp. 1861-1896. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI3652.1

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hoskins, B. J. and Lu, R. (2002) The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (586). pp. 2607-2622. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1256/qj.01.145

Report

Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Haigh, I. D., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, (2025) High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK: summary. Report. University of Reading (Produced for the UK Climate Resilience Programme. Project CR20-4)

Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Haigh, I. D., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, (2025) High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK: background report. Report. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (Produced for the UK Climate Resilience Programme. Project CR20-4)

Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Haigh, I. B., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, (2025) High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK: scenario report. Report. University of Reading (Produced for the UK Climate Resilience Programme. Project CR20-4)

This list was generated on Sat Feb 7 08:13:34 2026 UTC.