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Items where Author is "Hawkins, Dr Ed"

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Tietsche, S., Hawkins, E. and Day, J. J. (2016) Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate. Journal of Climate, 29 (1). pp. 331-346. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1

Eden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Hawkins, E. and Suckling, E. B. (2015) A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction. Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (12). pp. 3947-3973. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Melia, N., Haines, K. and Hawkins, E. (2015) Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations. The Cryosphere, 9 (6). pp. 2237-2251. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015

Sutton, R., Suckling, E. and Hawkins, E. (2015) What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373. 20140426. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0426

Allison, L., Hawkins, E. and Woollings, T. (2015) An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 44 (1-2). pp. 163-190. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9

King, A. D., Donat, M. G., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L. V., Karoly, D. J., Dittus, A. J., Lewis, S. C. and Perkins, S. E. (2015) The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9). 094015. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015

Xie, S.-P., Deser, C., Vecchi, G. A., Collins, M., Delworth, T. L., Hall, A., Hawkins, E., Johnson, N. C., Cassou, C., Giannini, A. and Watanabe, M. (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5 (10). pp. 921-930. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2689

Hawkins, E., Smith, R. S., Gregory, J. M. and Stainforth, D. A. (2015) Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8

Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E., Jacobs, P., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., Steinman, B. A., Stolpe, M. B. and Way, R. G. (2015) Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6526-6534. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2015GL064888

Swart, N. C., Fyfe, J. C., Hawkins, E., Kay, J. E. and Jahn, A. (2015) Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). pp. 86-89. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate2483

Hawkins, E., McNeall, D., Williams, J., Stephenson, D. and Carlson, D. (2015) Graphics: scrap rainbow colour scales. Nature, 519 (7543). p. 291. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: 10.1038/519291d

Anderson, B. T., Lintner, B. R., Langenbrunner, B., Neelin, J. D., Hawkins, E. and Syktus, J. (2015) Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1190-1196. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2014GL062593

Hawkins, E., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Melia, N., Haines, K. and Keeley, S. (2015) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2643

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2015) Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1

Usoskin, I. G., Arlt, R., Asvestari, E., Hawkins, E., Käpylä, M., Kovaltsov, G. A., Krivova, N., Lockwood, M., Mursula, K., O'Reilly, J., Owens, M., Scott, C. J., Sokoloff, D. D., Solanki, S. K., Soon, W. and Vaquero, J. M. (2015) The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 581. A95. ISSN 0004-6361 doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201526652

Holmes, C. R., Woollings, T., Hawkins, E. and de Vries, H. (2015) Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection. Journal of Climate. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

Fischer, E. M., Sedláček, J., Hawkins, E. and Knutti, R. (2014) Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (23). pp. 8554-8562. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2014GL062018

Day, J., Hawkins, E. and Tietsche, S. (2014) Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill? Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (21). pp. 7566-7575. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2014GL061694

Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. and Frame, D. (2014) Wetter then drier in some tropical areas. Nature Climate Change, 4 (8). pp. 646-647. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate2299

Hawkins, E., Anderson, B., Diffenbaugh, N., Mahlstein, I., Betts, R., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M., Knutti, R., McNeall, D., Solomon, S., Sutton, R., Syktus, J. and Vecchi, G. (2014) Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature, 511 (7507). E3-E5. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: 10.1038/nature13523

Day, J. J., Tietsche, S. and Hawkins, E. (2014) Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence. Journal of Climate, 27 (12). pp. 4371-4390. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1

Hawkins, E., Dong, B., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Smith, D. (2014) The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 27 (8). pp. 2931-2947. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1

Hawkins, E., Edwards, T. and McNeall, D. (2014) Pause for thought. Nature Climate Change, 4 (3). pp. 154-156. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate2150

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Teng, H., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Yeager, S. (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (2). pp. 243-267. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

Robson, J., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2014) Atlantic overturning in decline? Nature Geoscience, 7 (1). pp. 2-3. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: 10.1038/ngeo2050

Tietsche, S., Day, J.J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J., Keeley, S.P.E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Collins, M. and Hawkins, E. (2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (3). pp. 1035-1043. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL058755

Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fučkar, N., Germe, A., Hawkins, E., Keeley, S., Koenigk, T., Salas y Mélia, D. and Tietsche, S. (2014) A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2401

Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P. and Hawkins, E. (2014) The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61 (3). pp. 259-276. ISSN 0936-577X doi: 10.3354/cr01254

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermanson, L., Ho, C. K., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. and Wyser, K. (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (11-12). pp. 2875-2888. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E., Shaffrey, L., Broecker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL057630

Hawkins, E. and Jones, P. D. (2013) On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (677). pp. 1961-1963. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2178

Ba, J., Keenlyside, N. S., Park, W., Latif, M., Hawkins, E. and Ding, H. (2013) A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 41 (7-8). pp. 2133-2144. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Koehler, A.-K., Challinor, A. J., Hawkins, E. and Asseng, S. (2013) Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034016. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E., Shaffrey, L. and Underwood, F. M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Hodson, D. L. R., Keeley, S. P. E., West, A., Ridley, J., Hawkins, E. and Hewitt, H. T. (2013) Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 40 (11-12). pp. 2849-2865. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z

Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J. M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K. J., Hawkins, E. and Smith, D. R. (2013) Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (21). pp. 8357-8362. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1219441110

Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E., Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P. and Sexton, D. M. H. (2013) Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (1). pp. 95-108. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: 10.5194/esd-4-95-2013

Hawkins, E., Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K. and Challinor, A. J. (2013) Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. pp. 19-31. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007

Hawkins, E., Fricker, T. E., Challinor, A. J., Ferro, C. A. T., Ho, C. K. and Osborne, T. M. (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology, 19 (3). pp. 937-947. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: 10.1111/gcb.12069

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Doblas Reyes, F. J., Drijfhout, S. S. and Hawkins, E. (2013) Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014055. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055

Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N. and Hawkins, E. (2013) The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014024. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024

Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Guilyardi, E., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A. R., Mignot, J., Robson, J., Rosati, A. and Zhang, R. (2012) Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”. Science, 338 (6107). p. 604. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: 10.1126/science.1222566

Chalmers, N., Highwood, E. J., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R. T. and Wilcox, L. J. (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18709. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052848

Hawkins, E. and Vidale, P. L. (2012) Meteorology: Counting the coming storms. Nature Climate Change, 2 (8). pp. 574-575. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: 10.1038/nclimate1639

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (1). L01702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL050087

Hawkins, E., Robson, J., Sutton, R., Smith, D. and Keenlyside, N. (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). pp. 2495-2509. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3

Joshi, M., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R., Lowe, J. and Frame, D. (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Yip, S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B. and Hawkins, E. (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 24 (17). pp. 4634-4643. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1

Hawkins, E. (2011) Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability. Weather, 66 (7). pp. 175-179. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: 10.1002/wea.761

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, E., Smith, R. S., Allison, L. C., Gregory, J. M., Woollings, T. J., Pohlmann, H. and de Cuevas, B. (2011) Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (10). L10605. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL047208

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Ortega, P., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

Poulter, B., Hattermann, F., Hawkins, E., Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Restrepo-Coupe, N., Heyder , U. and Cramer, W. (2010) Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters. Global Change Biology, 16 (9). pp. 2476-2495. ISSN 1354-1013 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x

Charlton-Perez, A. J., Hawkins, E., Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, T. G., Tian, W. and Waugh, D. W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9473-9486. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D. and Stockdale, T. (2009) Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (10). pp. 1467-1485. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2008GL034059

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8

This list was generated on Fri Feb 12 22:01:06 2016 GMT.

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